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ON THE ESTIMATION OF OPERATIONS AND MAINTENANCE COSTS FOR DEFENSE SYSTEMS

By S. Jain, R. R. Creasey, J. Himmelspach, K. P. White, M. Fu, Jay D. Martin, Daniel A. Finke and Christopher B. Ligetti

Abstract

The estimation of operations and maintenance (O&M) costs for weapon systems has been termed ‘infeasible’ due to: 1) a lack of detailed prior (O&M) costs, 2) a large amount of uncertainty in the operational tempo for the system, and 3) uncertainty in the predicted reliability of system components. This research proposes the creation of a flexible discrete event simulation model to estimate O&M costs by predicting events that occur during a system’s life cycle. Such a model takes as inputs a given concept of operations, maintenance strategy, and system reliabilities to determine lifecycle events such as: consumables used and maintenance operations performed on the entire system throughout its life cycle. The uncertain cost of each event can be used to estimate a distribution of total O&M costs. The results can finally be analyzed to determine the attribution of the uncertainty of those costs to all of the different possible sources.

Year: 2014
OAI identifier: oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.416.5204
Provided by: CiteSeerX
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