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TIME-VARYING RISK PREMIUM IN LARGE CROSS-SECTIONAL EQUITY DATASETS

By Patrick Gagliardini, Elisa Ossola and Olivier Scaillet

Abstract

We develop an econometric methodology to infer the path of risk premia from a large unbalanced panel of individual stock returns. We estimate the time-varying risk premia implied by conditional linear asset pricing models where the conditioning includes both instruments common to all assets and asset specific instruments. The estimator uses simple weighted two-pass cross-sectional regressions, and we show its consistency and asymptotic normality under increasing cross-sectional and time series dimensions. We address consistent estimation of the asymptotic variance, and testing for asset pricing restrictions induced by the no-arbitrage assumption in large economies. The empirical analysis on returns for about ten thousands US stocks from July 1964 to December 2009 shows that conditional risk premia are large and volatile in crisis periods. They exhibit large positive and negative strays from unconditional estimates, follow the macroeconomic cycles, and do not match risk premia estimates on standard sets of portfolios. The asset pricing restrictions are rejected for a conditional four-factor model capturin

Topics: large panel, factor model, risk premium, asset pricing
Year: 2012
OAI identifier: oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.371.2758
Provided by: CiteSeerX
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