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When we know the subjective probabilities (degrees of belief) p1 and p2 of two statements S1 and S2 , and we have no information about the relationship between these statements, then the probability of S1 &S2 can take any value from the interval [max(p1 + p2 \Gamma 1; 0); min(p1 ; p2 )]. If we must select a single number from this interval, the natural idea is to take its midpoint. The corresponding "and" operation p1 & p2 def = (1=2) \Delta (max(p1 +p2 \Gamma 1; 0)+min(p1 ; p2)) is not associative. However, since the largest possible non-associativity degree j(a & b) & c \Gamma a & (b & c)j is equal to 1/9, this non-associativity is negligible if the realistic "granular" degree of belief have granules of width 1=9. This may explain why humans are most comfortable with 9 items to choose from (the famous "7 plus minus 2" law). We also show that the use of interval computations can simplify the (rather complicated) proofs. 1 1 In Expert Systems, We Need Estimates for the Degree of..

Year: 2000

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