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UNCORRECTED PROOF NONLINEARITIES, FEEDBACKS AND CRITICAL THRESHOLDS WITHIN THE EARTH’S CLIMATE SYSTEM

By José A. Rial, Rogera. Pielkesr, Martin Beniston, Martin Claussen, Josep Canadell, Peter Cox, Hermann Held, Nathalie De Noblet-ducoudré, Ronald Prinn, James F. Reynolds and José D. Salas

Abstract

Abstract. The Earth’s climate system is highly nonlinear: inputs and outputs are not proportional, change is often episodic and abrupt, rather than slow and gradual, and multiple equilibria are the norm. While this is widely accepted, there is a relatively poor understanding of the different types of nonlinearities, how they manifest under various conditions, and whether they reflect a climate system driven by astronomical forcings, by internal feedbacks, or by a combination of both. In this paper, after a brief tutorial on the basics of climate nonlinearity, we provide a number of illustrative examples and highlight key mechanisms that give rise to nonlinear behavior, address scale and methodological issues, suggest a robust alternative to prediction that is based on using integrated assessments within the framework of vulnerability studies and, lastly, recommend a number of research priorities an

Year: 2013
OAI identifier: oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.353.5298
Provided by: CiteSeerX
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