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Is R² a Measure of Market Inefficiency?

By Kewei Hou, Lin Peng and Wei Xiong

Abstract

This paper provides a critical evaluation of a widely made argument that stock prices in markets with lower return R² are more efficient. We show that in a standard rational expectations model, return R² is independent of the amount of information incorporated into stock prices. Furthermore, an alternative model in which stock price fluctuations are driven by investor sentiment leads to an opposite prediction that lower return R² is associated with stronger medium-term price momentum and long-term price reversal, two commonly believed signs of market inefficiency. By examining stock returns both in the U.S. and internationally, we find empirical evidence consistent with this contrasting prediction. Overall, our analysis casts doubt on the argument that low return R² is a measure of market efficiency

Year: 2013
OAI identifier: oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.307.7730
Provided by: CiteSeerX
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