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A Confluence of Events? Explaining Fluctuations in Local Employment

By A. Carlino

Abstract

ocal economies are subject to different types of shocks. Usually, the fortunes of local economies depend on a confluence of national, sectoral, and local shocks. That raises a question: Does one type of shock systematically buffet local economies more than another? The answer has important implications for both academic researchers and policymakers. Jerry Carlino examines the evidence to see which type of shock most likely explains fluctuations in local employment. In the late 1980s residents of Los Angeles saw an ominous cloud forming over the city. The local housing market, which for the previous several years had been red hot, began to falter. Soon, Angelinos would have to deal with the unthinkable — declining housing prices and a generally worsening regional economy. The loss of the area’s economic vigor had several sources. For one, Congress had been rolling back some of the increased defense spending it had legislated earlier in the decade, in response to the public outcry over large and growing federal budget deficits. Jerry Carlino is a senior economic advisor and economist in th

Year: 2011
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