Lee Tsao Yuan for useful comments on an earlier draft. Editorial assistance by B.R.S. Rajan, Yap Mui Teng and Chang Li Lin is much appreciated. Particular thanks are due to Gwee Wee Chen, who greatly assisted with the graphs. The usual disclaimer applies. Given the nature of this paper, the need for up-to-date data has required heavy dependence on data from various issues of The Economist magazine and selected analysts ’ reports.