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BARLEY MARKET INTEGRATION IN THE EU

By Ana M. Angulo and Económico Facultad

Abstract

Integration in the EU wheat and barley markets is studied using monthly price series for the 1980-1994 period. The methodology expands previous work on cointegration modeling by testing market integration constraints on the cointegration space; these tests are also supplemented with an evaluation of the short-run dynamics by testing for causality and calculating forecast-error variance decompositions. This adds to previous work which have suggested that cointegration is a necessary but not sufficient condition for market integration. Results are consistent with the self-sufficiency nature of cereal markets in the EU. Prices appear to follow each other in the long-run with more than one stochastic trend. France exerts

Topics: Cereals, EU, Market integration, Cointegration, Causality. 1
Year: 2011
OAI identifier: oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.197.4128
Provided by: CiteSeerX
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