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The Link of the Monetary Indicator to Future Inflation in the Euro Area – A Simulation Experiment

By Jan Gottschalk, Stéphanie Stolz, Stéphanie Stolz, Klaus-jürgen Gern and Robert Kokta

Abstract

The responsibility for the contents of the working papers rests with the authors, not the Institute. Since working papers are of a preliminary nature, it may be useful to contact the authors of a particular working paper about results or caveats before referring to, or quoting, a paper. Any comments on working papers should be sent directly to the authors. The Link of the Monetary Indicator to Future Inflation in the Euro Area – A Simulation Experiment We examine the indicator property of the monetary indicator for inflation. Using a P*-model, Svensson shows theoretically in a recent paper that the relationship between these two variables is rather tenuous. The present study employs empirical evidence on the relations in his model to quantify its dynamics for the euro area. Moreover, we extend Svensson’s analysis by considering different shocks and monetary regimes. It becomes apparent that the system exhibits complicated dynamics and that for most shocks and policy regimes the monetary indicator is not a leading indicator of dangers to price stability in the medium term

Topics: Monetary, Targeting, Inflation, Targeting, Euro Area JEL classification, E 51, E 52 Jan Gottschalk
Year: 2001
OAI identifier: oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.195.8168
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