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CANADA’S FUTURE OIL PRODUCTION: Projected 2000-2020

By M. King, Hubbert Center, M. King, Hubbert Center and L. F. Ivanhoe

Abstract

Canada, in addition to its own substantial petroleum needs for its vast cold areas (1,775,000 B/D(4/), is a most important source of oil and gas for the U.S. (imports = 1,576,000 B/D(5/). The U.S. is extremely interested in the probable size of Canada’s near-term “Synthetic Oil ” production. The “Hubbert Production Peak ” for Western Canada’s conventional oil was reached in 1973, soon after the US/48 Hubbert Peak in 1970. Since then, Western Canada’s conventional oil production from wells has declined steadily and today is less than half that in 1973. The new Atlantic Ocean production will offset Western Canada’s future oil decline. By 2020, Newfoundland’s offshore conventional crude is expected to equal Western Canada’s production of some 360,000 B/D (barrels per day). The huge (+300 recoverable billion barrels in place) Alberta Tar Sands will be the backbone of Canada’s long-term oil production. Tar Sands production began in earnest after 1982, and “Synthetic Oil ” is expected to grow from 400,000 B/D (2000) to 1,000,000 B/D (2020). Tar sands production is more like coal mining than production from oilwells and is not cheap; it is a deep-pocket game for major oil companies and/or the government. An investment of more than $1,000,000,000 ($1 billion) is required to set up production of 100,000 B/D – a white poker chip in the world oil business. Winters in the region are sub-arctic with bad mosquitoes in the summers. There is no local infrastructure except for the Ta

Year: 2011
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