A probabilistic distributed discrete event simulation strategy is developed as a performance efficient compromise between the two classical approaches in parallel and distributed simulation, the conservative and the optimistic approach. It weakens the conservative "block until safe-to-process"-rule in a sense that if the time instant of the occurrence of an external event is in the time interval [s; t], it allows progressing simulation up until the forecasted next event instant b t(O), s b t(O) t, but further progression only with controlled probability. b t(O) is an estimate based on the arrival instant differences O = (ffi 1 ; ffi 2 ; : : : ffi n ) observed during a time window by some logical (simulation) process. Compared to the optimistic strategy it prevents from propagating incorrect computations too far ahead into the simulated future, and thus avoids unnecessary communication overhead by breaking rollback cascades as early as possible. The arrival patterns observed in O are ..