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Case study: L. monocytogenes in cold-smoked salmon

By R. Pouillot, M. -l. Delignette-muller and M. Cornu


The objective of this case study is to assess the risk of invasive listeriosis from consumption of cold-smoked salmon in France. The process of interest lays from the end of the production line in the factory, when the cold-smoked salmon is vacuum-packed, to the consumption. The data and the model are adapted to illustrate the use of mc2d: the results will not and should not be interpreted as an assessment of the actual risk of listeriosis from consumption of cold-smoked salmon. Interested readers could refer to [3] and [2] for a complete risk assessment on that issue. The model will be developed in a first section, without considering variability or uncertainty (deterministic model). Variability will then be introduced in a second section, and a last section will consider variability and a part of the data uncertainty. 1 The Model In this section, no variability nor uncertainty is considered. We assess the final level of L. monocytogenes in the product, the exposure and the risk of invasive listeriosis for an “average ” individual of the “healthy ” French population 1. During the logistic, the retail and the home step, a bacterial growth is modeled considering i) the fluctuating temperature during the various stages and; ii) the bacterial competition with the food flora. We use the models developed and/or used in [3]. The data are adapted from [3] and [1]: • The DMS model predicts the bacterial growth during a stage of duration d, when the temperature is fluctuating, with an intra-stage average temperature mT and an intra-stage standard deviation of the temperature sT. It is written: N1 = min ⎝N0 + µre

Year: 2010
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