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Win-or-Nothing Decision Analysis

By Paul Dworzanski


Decision analysis (DA) is a discipline capable of robustly analyzing many types of decisions. In this paper, win-or-nothing problems will be formulated through a coin tossing problem and a general approach on how a decision-maker should value a win-or-nothing lottery will be presented. Then, binary option prices will show the behavior of a range of winor-nothing contracts with different probabilities of success

Topics: Decision Analysis, Binary option, expected utility
Year: 2010
OAI identifier: oai:CiteSeerX.psu:
Provided by: CiteSeerX
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