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By E. Zorita T. F. Stocker

Abstract

6 [1] Previous statistical detection methods based partially this case, the probability p of the event E of finding at least 7 on climate model simulations indicate that, globally, the 13 of the largest values of a sequence of 127 independent 8 observed warming lies very probably outside the natural random numbers on the last 17 places (year 1990 to 2006) is 9 variations. We use a more simple approach to assess recent p(E) = (114!17!)/(127!4!) = 1.25 10 14. Such clustering 10 warming at different spatial scales without making explicit appears as an extremely improbable random event in a stationary 11 use of climate simulations. It considers the likelihood that climate. However, the annual surface air-temperatures 12 the observed recent clustering of warm record-breaking displays a serial correlation, even in a stationary natural 13 mean temperatures at global, regional and local scales may climate, due to processes occurring on the land surface, 14 occur by chance in a stationary climate. Under two statistical ocean, and cryosphere. We conceptualize this natural memor

Year: 2008
OAI identifier: oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.173.3012
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