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FUTURE U.S. GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION REDUCTION SCENARIOS CONSISTENT WITH ATMOSPHERIC STABILIZATION

By Vello Kuuskraa, Phil Dipietro, Scott Klara and Sarah Forbes

Abstract

The paper analyzes a scenario for reducing U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that is consistent, in the near term, with the President’s Global Climate Change Initiative (GCCI) and, in the longer term, atmospheric stabilization at 550 ppm. The purpose for formulating and evaluating such a stabilization scenario is to define the role and expectations for performance of carbon sequestration technologies in a future, speculative carbonconstrained world. The analysis shows that an integrated approach, involving energy efficiency, cost-effective renewables and availability of advanced CO2 capture and storage technology, would be required for atmospheric stabilization. Under this scenario, the carbon intensity of U.S. GDP is reduced by 18 % in 2012 per the GCCI. From 2012 to 2050, GHG emissions intensity is further reduced toward an absolute target of 1,200 MMmtC/year, representing a substantial U.S. contribution toward a world wide atmospheric stabilization concentration of 550 ppm. The analysis examines opportunities for reducing emissions (both CO2 and non-CO2 GHGs) in all sectors, including transportation, electricity supply, industrial, commercial and residential. It quantifies the potential contribution of the various GHG reduction options and shows that advanced lower-cost CO2 capture and storage technology will need to play a key role in any future GHG emissions reduction scenario

Year: 2010
OAI identifier: oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.151.5729
Provided by: CiteSeerX
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