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Research Multivariate Markovian Modeling of Tuberculosis: Forecast for the United States

By Sara M. Debanne, Roger A. Bielefeld, George M. Cauthen, Thomas M. Daniel and Douglas Y. Rowl


disaggregated demographic groups. Uncertainty in model parameters and in the projections is represented by fuzzy numbers. Projections are made under the assumption that current TB control measures will remain unchanged for the projection period. The projections of the model demonstrate an intermediate increase in national TB incidence (similar to that which actually occurred) followed by continuing decline. The rate of decline depends strongly on geographic, racial, and ethnic characteristics. The model predicts that the rate of decline in the number of cases among Hispanics will be slower than among white non-Hispanics and black non-Hispanics—a prediction supported by the most recent data. After many years of decline, tuberculosis (TB) cases began to resurge in the United States in 1984, and continued to climb for a decade before declining again (1-4). Reemergent TB did not affect all segments of the population equally. While incidence continued to decline in som

Year: 2009
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