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The Unspecified Temporal Criminal Event: What is Unknown is Known with Aoristic Analysis and Multinomial Logistic Regression 1

By Martin A. Andresen and Greg W. Jenion

Abstract

Environmental criminologists begin their study of crime by asking where and when crimes occur. Police databases contain information on the temporal nature of criminal events and some criminal events, such as burglary and automotive theft, are reported over an unspecified time period or time range/window—there is a start time and an end time but no actual time of occurrence. Recent work on this subject has manifested in a relatively new technique, aoristic analysis, which estimates the probability of a criminal offence occurring within a certain time span. This technique is a great step forward from previous temporal analysis techniques and has great utility for law enforcement personnel when analyzing range data. However, it is important that analysts use caution when databases contain abundances of extreme time ranges. In order to facilitate the comparative analyses of the temporal aspects of crime, an alternative technique is suggested, multinomial logistic regression, which incorporates the advantages of aoristic analysis and extends the analysis of the temporal criminal event into the realm of inferential statistics

Topics: temporal analysis, aoristic analysis, logistic regression
Year: 2009
OAI identifier: oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.135.5453
Provided by: CiteSeerX
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