Do anticipated tax changes matter? Further evidence from the United Kingdom

Abstract

This paper provides some evidence against the rational expectations-permanent income model of consumption behaviour and the Ricardian Equivalence proposition by testing the responsiveness of spending to the implementation of pre-announced changes in income tax. Extending the work of Summer (1991), a long series of recurrent episodes of this kind is for the U.K (1960-1990) is examined. It is found that consumption expenditure strongly reacts to (pre-announced) fiscally-induced changes in current disposable income. This effect is due to the semi-durable and durable components of spending