Skip to main content
Article thumbnail
Location of Repository

Model evaluation and causality testing in short panels: the case of infrastructure provision and population growth in the Brazilian Amazon

By Diana Weinhold and Eustaquio J. Reis


In this paper we examine the relationship between infrastructure growth and population growth in the Amazon using a panel of 293 municipalities over the period from 1975 to 1985. Contemporaneous cross-section analysis confirms a strong positive correlation between infrastructure and urban population but does not indicate direction of causality. Thus, we employ a modified form of the traditional Granger causality tests to suit the short time series that we have available. Based on out-of-sample forecasting tests we conclude that the empirical evidence supports the hypothesis that growing urban populations lead to more infrastructure development, rather than vice versa

Topics: H Social Sciences (General)
Publisher: Blackwell Publishing
Year: 2001
DOI identifier: 10.1111/0022-4146.00236
OAI identifier:
Provided by: LSE Research Online
Download PDF:
Sorry, we are unable to provide the full text but you may find it at the following location(s):
  • http://www.blackwellpublishing... (external link)
  • (external link)
  • Suggested articles

    To submit an update or takedown request for this paper, please submit an Update/Correction/Removal Request.