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Childbirth in east and west German stepfamilies: estimated probabilities from hazard rate models

By Ursula Henz


The present paper studies fertility rates in partnerships with and without children from previous partners in East and West Germany. Data from the German "Fertility and Family Survey" is used to estimate piecewise-linear hazard rate models for having another child. It turns out that a proportional-hazard model would give incorrect results because childbirth follows different time patterns for couples who have already a shared child and couples who do not. Therefore, a model with specific clocks for various experiences of parenthood is specified. Based on these model estimations the probability for having another child within a certain time is calculated. In West Germany the estimated likelihood of having another child within six years varies little by child composition. In contrast, East-German couples with no shared child have a higher likelihood than couples with a shared child to have a child within six years

Topics: HQ The family. Marriage. Woman
Publisher: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Year: 2002
DOI identifier: 10.4054/DemRes.2002.7.6
OAI identifier:
Provided by: LSE Research Online

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