This brief applies a simple framework for assessing the relative potential for Rotary membership growth in different geographic areas. The analysis is relative in that areas are compared to each other through an econometric procedure. By design about half of the areas are considered as performing comparatively well in that they have membership rates above expectations. The other areas are considered as performing less well because they have membership rates below expectations, and thereby more potential for growth. The simulations entail assessing how much membership growth could be achieved by raising the performance of less well performing areas to their expected levels of performance. That is, relative membership potential gains are estimated by raising the performance of less well performing areas to the average performance in zone 33 as a whole, taking into account the fact that expected membership rates differ between areas. The analysis is conducted for Rotary zone 33 as a whole, which covers part of the Mid Atlantic and South Atlantic regions of the United States, but the results provided in this brief are for 16 geographic areas within district 7550, which covers part of West Virginia. The results suggest that district 7550 has a comparatively high Rotary membership rate, but there is nevertheless potential for membership growth.
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