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Risk Prediction of Emergency Department Revisit 30 Days Post Discharge: A Prospective Study

By Hao Shiying, Jin Bo, Shin Andrew Young, Zhao Yifan, Zhu Chunqing, Li Zhen, Hu Zhongkai, Fu Changlin, Ji Jun, Wang Yong, Zhao Yingzhen, Dai Dorothy, Culver Devore S., Alfreds Shaun T., Rogow Todd, Stearns Frank, Sylvester Karl G., Widen Eric and Ling Xuefeng B.


Among patients who are discharged from the Emergency Department (ED), about 3% return within 30 days. Revisits can be related to the nature of the disease, medical errors, and/or inadequate diagnoses and treatment during their initial ED visit. Identification of high-risk patient population can help device new strategies for improved ED care with reduced ED utilization.-statistics for the retrospective and prospective predictions were 0.710 and 0.704 respectively. Clinical resource utilization, including ED use, was analyzed as a function of the ED risk score. Cluster analysis of high-risk patients identified discrete sub-populations with distinctive demographic, clinical and resource utilization patterns.Our ED 30-day revisit model was prospectively validated on the Maine State HIN secure statewide data system. Future integration of our ED predictive analytics into the ED care work flow may lead to increased opportunities for targeted care intervention to reduce ED resource burden and overall healthcare expense, and improve outcomes

Publisher: Public Library of Science
Year: 2014
DOI identifier: 10.1371/journal.pone.0112944
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