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Fertility Knowledge and the Subjective Probability of Having Children

By 恵美子 臼井, 美樹 小林, Emiko Usui and Miki Kobayashi


女性の妊孕性は,年齢が高くなるほど低下する.米国では養子縁組が広く普及しているため,子どもをもうけることができない夫婦でも子どもを持つことができるが,日本では米国のような状況ではないため,女性の加齢とともに,夫婦が子どもを持つ可能性は確実に低下する.本論文では,加齢とともに女性の妊孕性が低くなるという知識(特に,女性は30代と比べて40代の受胎率は低くなるという知識)の有無によって,子どもを持つ主観的期待確率に違いがあるかどうかを,全国レベルの個票データを用いて検討する.分析の結果,子どもがいない40代前半の女性及びその年齢の配偶者をもつ男性のグループは,正しい妊娠知識がある人より,正しい妊娠知識がない人のほうが,生涯にわたり子どもを持つ主観的期待確率が,10%程度高いことがわかった.このことは,妊娠についての正しい知識の普及により,妊娠適齢期に子どもを産むことを促すことで,子どもを持つことができる夫婦が増え,結果として,日本の少子化に歯止めをかける一助となる可能性があることを示唆する.Fertility naturally declines as women age. But in Japan, child adoption is not a popular solutions to infertility, even for older women―unlike the situation in the United States. We investigate whether knowledge of age-related female fertility(i.e., that the pregnancy rate of women in their 40s is lower than that of women in their 30s)is related to individualsʼ subjective probability of having a child. Among women in their early 40s and married men with wives in this age group who do not yet have children, the subjective probabilities of having children are approximately 10% higher among those with incorrect fertility knowledge than among those with correct fertility knowledge. The results suggest that increasing the accuracy of what Japanese couplesʼ believe about womenʼs fertility patterns could lead these couples to have their children before the woman turns 40

Publisher: 岩波書店
Year: 2018
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Provided by: HERMES-IR
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