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Accuracy of a predictive model for severe hepatic fibrosis or cirrhosis in chronic hepatitis C.

By A. Colli, A. Colucci, S. Paggi, M. Fraquelli, S. Massironi, M. Andreoletti, V. Michela and D. Conte

Abstract

Aim: To assess the accuracy of a model in diagnosing severe fibrosis/cirrhosis in chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Methods: The model, based on the sequential combination of the Bonacini score (BS: ALT/AST ratio, platelet count and INR) and ultrasonography liver surface characteristics, was applied to 176 patients with chronic HCV infection. Assuming a pre-test probability of 35%, the model defined four levels of post-test probability of severe fibrosis/cirrhosis: 90% (almost absolute). The predicted probabilities were compared with the observed patients' distribution according to the histology (METAVIR). Results: Severe fibrosis/cirrhosis was found in 67 patients (38%). The model discriminated patients in three comparable groups: 34% with a very high (>90%) or low (75%) or low (<10%) probability of cirrhosis, leaving only 33% of the patients still requiring liver biopsy

Topics: Bonacini score, Hepatitis C, Liver biopsy, Liver fibrosis, Ultrasonography, Settore MED/12 - Gastroenterologia
Year: 2005
OAI identifier: oai:air.unimi.it:2434/11924
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