Location of Repository

Scenario analysis, decision trees and simulation for cost benefit analysis of the cargo screening process

By Galina Sherman, Peer-Olaf Siebers, Uwe Aickelin and David Menachof


In this paper we present our ideas for conducting a cost\ud benefit analysis by using three different methods: scenario analysis, decision trees and simulation. Then we introduce our case study and examine these methods in a real world situation. We show how these tools can be used and what the results are for each of them. Our aim is to conduct a comparison of these different probabilistic methods of estimating costs for port security risk assessment studies. Methodologically, we are trying to understand the limits of all the tools mentioned above by focusing on rare events

Publisher: COPPE/UFRJ
Year: 2010
OAI identifier: oai:eprints.nottingham.ac.uk:1459
Provided by: Nottingham ePrints

Suggested articles



  1. (2006). A Cost-Benefit Analysis of Alternative Device Configurations for Aviation-Checked Baggage Security Screening. Risk Analysis,
  2. (1987). A simulation approach to cost effectiveness and cost benefit calculations of screening for the early detection of disease.
  3. (2006). A Simulation-Based Approach To Trade-Off Analysis Of Port Security.
  4. (1985). An introduction to management science quantitative approaches to decision making.
  5. (1993). Cost-Benefit Analysis and the Environment.
  6. (1986). Elements of Port Operation and Management.
  7. (2008). Freight Search Figures for 2007/2008, provided by the UK Border Agency (unpublished).
  8. (2005). Management Science Decision Making Through Systems Thinking.
  9. (2005). Managing Disruption Risks in Supply Chains.
  10. (2005). Modelling complexity in the automotive industry supply chain. doi
  11. (2002). Risk: Analysis, Perception and Management. doi
  12. (2004). Simulation: The Practice of Model Development and Use.
  13. (2007). Strategic risk taking: a framework for risk management. Upper Saddle River,
  14. (2009). The Benefit-Cost Analysis of Security Focused Regulations.
  15. (2009). The cost and benefits of bowel cancer service developments using discrete event simulation.
  16. (2005). The Resilient Enterprise: Overcoming Vulnerability for Competitive Advantage. doi
  17. (2005). Use of modeling and simulation to support airport security. doi
  18. (2009). XJ Technologies - Simulation Software and Services. Available from: http://www.xjtek.com [accessed 20

To submit an update or takedown request for this paper, please submit an Update/Correction/Removal Request.