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Exchange rate fluctuations and extra-eurozone exports: A comparison of Germany and France

By Serge Rey

Abstract

International audienceTo study the extra-eurozone exports of goods by France and Germany, this study applies cointegration methods to estimate long-run equations for the period 1971–2010 (quarterly data), as well as for a shorter period known as the“euro period.” Various measures of the real exchange rate of the euro indicate that the price elasticities of exports are higher for France (-0.6 to -0.9) than for Germany (-0.2 to -0.3). Conversely, the income elasticities of German exportsare double those of France, reaching nearly 2 for 1 in the French case. These results support French fears about the value of the euro–dollar exchange rate, but they also reveal a delay by France in its adaptation to the new globalenvironment, following the opening of the central and eastern European economies and the arrival of large emerging countries in the worldwide economy

Topics: Euro, Germany, France, Unit roots, Breaks, Cointegration, Exports, JEL: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C5 - Econometric Modeling, JEL: F - International Economics/F.F3 - International Finance, [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance
Publisher: Economics Bulletin
Year: 2011
OAI identifier: oai:HAL:hal-01885303v1
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