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Risk and uncertainty analysis of natural environmental assets threatened by hydropower projects: case study from Sri Lanka

By M. Ranasinghe

Abstract

This paper develops a methodology to analyse the risk and uncertainty associated with the decision to implement a hydropower project that threatens a series of waterfalls that are considered a unique natural environmental asset. The methodology to quantify the risk associated with that decision is developed using the principles of risk analysis. The objective of uncertainty analysis is defined with descriptions of proxy risk simulations that need to be carried out to describe the associated uncertainty. The interpretation of the results from the risk simulations and their use to estimate the level of confidence in the decision is described. A published case study on the estimation of bounds on the “economic value of waterfalls” from a reverse analysis is used to describe the methodology to quantify the risk and describe the uncertainty associated with the economic valuation of the threatened asset

Year: 2013
OAI identifier: oai:localhost:123/8631
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