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Makroekonomske determinante slabih naložb in zunajbilančnih obveznosti hrvaških bank

Abstract

Background and Purpose: The non-performing placements and off-balance sheet liabilities are often considered key factors that lead to banking crises. Economic and financial crises increase the level of the non-performing placements and off-balance sheet liabilities which can cause significant losses for banks. Effective management and regulatory/ supervisory institutions such central banks should be able to recognize and quantify these effects. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to empirically determine the existence and the quantitative impact of main Croatian macroeconomic variables on the non-performing placements and off-balance sheet liabilities of Croatian banks in the long and short-run. Methodology: For this purpose the bounds testing (ARDL) approach for cointegration is applied. The ARDL model is performed in two steps. The first step starts with conducting the bounds test for cointegration. In the second step, when cointegration is found, the long-run relationship and the associated error correction model are estimated. Results: The results indicate the existence of stable cointegration relationship between the variables i.e. in the longrun, an increase in real GDP reduces the level of the non-performing placements and off-balance sheet liabilities of Croatian banks wherein an increase in prices, unemployment, interest rate and the depreciation of the Croatian kuna exchange rate increases their level. On the other hand, in the short-run the results are rather mixed. Conclusion: To avoid crises, effective bank management and regulatory/supervisory institutions should be able to recognize and quantify these effects. This is a necessary precondition for implementation of an adequate prudential and monetary policy measures for reducing the level of the non-performing placements and off-balance sheet liabilities.Ozadje in namen: Slabe naložbe in zunajbilančne obveznosti se pogosto obravnavajo kot ključni dejavniki, ki vodijo do bančnih kriz. Gospodarska in finančna kriza poveča obseg slabih naložb (in zunajbilančnih obveznosti, kar lahko bankam povzroči velike izgube. Učinkovito poslovodstvo bank in regulatorno-nadzorne institucije kot n. pr. centralne banke, bi morali biti sposobni prepoznati in kvantitativno ovrednotiti te učinke. Namen te raziskave je zato empirično ugotoviti obstoj in kvantitativni vpliv glavnih hrvaških makroekonomskih spremenljivk na slabe naložbe in zunajbilanč­ne obveznosti hrvaških bank na dolgi in kratki rok. Metodologija: Za ta namen testiranja meja smo uporabili pristop ko-integracije (ARDL). Model ARDL poteka v dveh korakih. Prvi korak se začne z izvedbo testa meje ko-integracije. V drugem koraku, ko je že ugotovjena ko-integracija, ocenjujemo dolgoročna razmerja povezana in ocenjujenonapako modela. Rezultati: Rezultati kažejo na stabilno kointegracijsko razmerje med spremenljivkami na dolgi rok, povečanje realne­ga BDP pa zmanjšuje raven slabih naložb in zunajbilančnih obveznosti hrvaških bank, pri čemer povišanje cen, brez­poselnost, obrestna mera in depreciacija menjalnega tečaja hrvaške kune povečuje raven omenjenih spremenljivk. Po drugi strani pa so rezultati za kratkek rok precej dvoumni. Zaključek: Da bi se izognili krizam, mora učinkovit poslovodstvo bank ter regulatorno-nadzorne institucije biti spo­sobni prepoznati in količinsko ovrednotiti te učinke. To je nujen predpogoj za izvajanje ustreznih ukrepov regulatorne in monetarne politike za zmanjšanje ravni slabih naložb in zunajbilančnih obveznosti

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oaioai:dk.um.si:IzpisGradiva.php?id=69171Last time updated on 12/17/2017View original full text link

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