Skip to main content
Article thumbnail
Location of Repository

Estimating and visualising imprecision in radiological emergency response assessments

By S M Haywood

Abstract

After an accidental release of radioactivity to atmosphere, modelling assessments are needed to predict what the contamination levels are likely to be and what measures need to be taken to protect human health. These predictions will be imprecise due to lack of knowledge about the nature of the release and the weather, and also due to measurement inaccuracy. This thesis describes work to investigate this imprecision and to find better ways of including it in assessments and representing it in results. It starts by reviewing exposure pathways and the basic dose calculations in an emergency response assessment. The possible variability of key parameters in emergency dose calculations is considered, and ranges are developed for each. The imprecision typically associated with calculational endpoints is explored through a sensitivity study. This has been done using both a simple Gaussian atmospheric dispersion model and also real-time weather data in combination with a complex atmospheric dispersion model. The key parameters influencing assessment imprecision are identified. These are demonstrated to be factors relating to the release, arising from inevitable lack of knowledge in the early stages of an accident, and factors relating to meteorology and dispersion. An alternative improved approach to emergency response assessments is then outlined, which retains a simple and transparent assessment capability but which also indicates the imprecision associated with the results through incomplete knowledge. This tool uses input from real-time atmospheric dispersion and weather prediction tools. A prototype version of the tool has been created and this has been used to produce example results. The final stage of the thesis describes the use of the new tool to develop ways in which imprecise or uncertain information can be presented to decision makers. Alternative presentational techniques are demonstrated using example results

Year: 2011
OAI identifier: oai:dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk:1826/6156
Provided by: Cranfield CERES

Suggested articles

Citations

  1. (1997). A doi
  2. A (1986a). The sixth report of a Working Group on Atmospheric Dispersion: Modelling wet deposition from a short release.
  3. A (2003). Methods for interpreting monitoring data following an accident in wet conditions,
  4. (2003). A baseline urban dispersion model evaluated with Salt Lake City and Los Angeles tracer data, Atmospheric Environment, doi
  5. (1984). A comparison of methods of estimating stability category and boundary layer depth using routine surface observations Met Office Internal Report,
  6. (2005). A preliminary investigation of model evaluation data needs, Tenth international conference on harmonisation within atmospheric dispersion modelling for regulatory purposes, Sissi,
  7. (2004). Airborne contamination in the indoor environment and its implications for dose.
  8. (2005). Analysis of a Kalman filter based method for on-line estimation of atmospheric dispersion parameters using radiation monitoring data. Rad Prot Dos, doi
  9. (1983). Atmospheric transport of radioisotopes and the assessment of population doses on a European scale,
  10. (1976). Calculation of ground level concentration for different sampling periods and source locations, IN Atmospheric Pollution,
  11. (2001). Concentration fluctuations arising from inherent variability in the field of turbulence,
  12. (2004). DAPPLE – initial field and wind tunnel results,
  13. (1984). Description of the Riso puff diffusion model.
  14. (2003). DEWAR – Effectiveness of Decontamination Options, Wastes Arising and other Practical Aspects of Recovery Countermeasures in Inhabited Areas. Environment Agency R&D
  15. (2002). Dispersion of a passive tracer within and above an urban canopy;
  16. (2004). Emergency management: does it have a sufficiently comprehensive understanding of decision-making, process and context?, doi
  17. (1990). EXPURT – a model for evaluating exposure from radioactive material deposited in the urban environment.
  18. (2005). Extended Kalman filter analysis of shortrange atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides. Tenth international conference on harmonisation within atmospheric dispersion modelling for regulatory purposes, Sissi,
  19. (2003). Flow and dispersion in urban areas, doi
  20. (1994). Health and Safety Executive, Arrangements for responding to nuclear emergencies.
  21. (1995). How maps work: representation, visualization, and design, doi
  22. (1991). Influence of seasonal and meteorological factors on nuclear emergency planning. OECD,
  23. (1984). Influence of the turbulence typing scheme upon the cumulative frequency distributions of the calculated relative concentrations for different averaging times, doi
  24. International Atomic Energy Agency, Convention on early notification of a nuclear accident. doi
  25. (1996). International Atomic Energy Agency, International Basic Safety Standards for Protection against Ionizing Radiation and for the Safety of Radiation Sources, doi
  26. (1994). International Atomic Energy Agency, Intervention criteria in a nuclear or radiation emergency,
  27. International Atomic Energy Agency, Method for developing arrangements for response to a nuclear or radiological emergency. IAEAEPR-METHOD,
  28. International Atomic Energy Agency, Method for the development if emergency response preparedness for nuclear or radiological accidents,
  29. International Atomic Energy Agency, Techniques and decision making in the assessment of off-site consequences of an accident in a nuclear facility, doi
  30. (1997). International Atomic Energy Agency. Generic assessment procedures for determining protective actions during a reactor accident. Report number IAEA-TECDOC-955,
  31. International Atomic Energy Agency. Generic procedures for assessment and response during a radiological emergency. IAEA TECDOC-1162.
  32. (1999). International Atomic Energy Agency. Generic procedures for monitoring in a nuclear or radiological emergency. Report number IAEATECDOC-1092,
  33. International Atomic Energy Agency. Preparedness and response to a nuclear or radiological emergency – requirements.
  34. (1984). International Commission on Radiological Protection Publication 40: Protection of the public in the event of major radiation accidents: principles for planning. doi
  35. (2004). Kalman filtration of radiation monitoring data from atmospheric dispersion of radioactive materials. doi
  36. (1996). LINCOM user guide for version L1,
  37. (1986). Methods for assessing the off-site radiological consequences of nuclear accidents’,
  38. Nuclear Energy Agency. Short-term countermeasures in case of a nuclear or radiological emergency.
  39. Overview of Urban 2000: a multiscale field study of dispersion through an urban environment. doi
  40. (1999). Quantitative measurement of aerosol deposition on skin, hair and clothing for dosimetric assessment – Final report.
  41. (1991). Radiological aspects of nuclear accident scenarios,
  42. (2002). Recommendation for best practice of statistical binning of met data for dispersion modelling purposes,
  43. (2000). Review of decontamination and remediation techniques for plutonium and application for CONDO Version 1.0.
  44. (1970). Scavenging of soluble dye particles by rain,
  45. (2003). Summary of work funded by ADMLC. A report prepared for ADMLC by NRPB,
  46. (1984). The impact of source term characteristics and the processes that modify them post release on dry and wet deposition rates, Final report on Task 1 of extension to Contract SR011-80UK(B), Review of specific effects in atmospheric dispersion calculations.
  47. (1989). The influence of seasonal conditions on the radiological consequences of a nuclear accident.
  48. (1987). The limits of air pollution modelling. doi
  49. (1979). The uncertainty associated with selected environmental transport models, Oak Ridge National Laboratory report ORNL-5528.
  50. (1983). The Visual Display of Quantitative Information, doi
  51. (2000). Tracer and Dispersion of Gaseous Pollutants in an Urban Area. Birmingham Tracer Experiments. doi
  52. (2002). Treating predictions from more than one model, doi
  53. (2002). Uncertainties in met pre-processing for dispersion models, www.admlc.org.uk/workshop.htm
  54. (1993). Uncertainty in the assessment of atmospheric concentrations of toxic contaminants from an accidental release, Decision making support for off-site emergency management.

To submit an update or takedown request for this paper, please submit an Update/Correction/Removal Request.