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The financial performance of small and medium sized companies: A model based on accountancy data is developed to predict the financial performance of small and medium sized companies.

By Jalal Y. Earmia

Abstract

This study is concerned with developing a model to\ud identify small-medium U.K. companies at risk of financial\ud failure up to five years in advance.\ud The importance of small companies in an economy, the\ud impact of their failures, and the lack of failure\ud research with respect to . this population, provided\ud justification for this study.\ud The research was undertaken in two stages. The first\ud stage included a detailed description and discussion of\ud the nature and role of small business in the UK economy,\ud heir relevance, problems and Government involvement in\ud this sector, together with literature review and\ud assessment of past research relevant to this study.\ud The second stage was involved with construction of\ud the models using multiple discriminant analysis, applied\ud to published accountancy data for two groups of failed\ud and nonfailed companies. The later stage was performed in\ud three parts : (1) evaluating five discriminant models for\ud each of five years prior to failure; (2) testing the\ud performance of each of the .five models over time on data\ud not used . in their construction; (3) testing the\ud discriminant models on a validation sample. The purpose\ud was to establish the "best" discriminant model. "Best"\ud was determined according to classification ability of the\ud model and interpretation of variables.\ud Finally a model comprising seven financial ratios\ud measuring four aspects of a company's financial profile,\ud such as profitability, gearing, capital turnover and\ud liquidity was chosen. The model has shown to be a valid\ud tool for predicting companies' health up to five years in\ud advance.Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research of the Iraqi Government

Topics: Financial ratios, Discriminant analysis, Company failure, Small-medium companies, Failure prediction, Accountancy data, Financial reporting, Z-scores, Trend analysis, Financial performance
Publisher: Post-graduate School of Industrial Technology
Year: 1991
OAI identifier: oai:bradscholars.brad.ac.uk:10454/3406
Provided by: Bradford Scholars

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