<h3>Study objectives</h3><p>To estimate the risk of entry to long-stay residential and nursing care for elderly people, from current admission rates. <p><p><h3>Design</h3><p>Double-decremented life-table analysis of national statistics which are refined using evidence from PSSRU<p><p>surveys of residential and nursing care. <p><p><h3>Setting</h3><p>England, 1995/6. <p><p><h3>Main results</h3><p>The life time risk of long-stay entry into a care home, based on 1995/6 admission rates, for men is 16 per cent at birth, rising to 20 per cent at 65. For women, the risk is much higher, rising from 32 per cent at birth to 36 per cent at 65. The expectation of long-stay care for elderly people, of someone who has not already been admitted, for a man is 3½ months at birth rising to 4 months at 65. For a woman it is 11 months at birth rising to 12 months at 65. These are the average insurance risks for a person not already in a care home. <p><p><h3>Conclusions</h3><p>The risk is now greater than is widely appreciated. This has significant implications for personal planning as well as to insurers and fundors
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