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不動產投資理性預期比較研究

By 梁仁旭

Abstract

[[abstract]]收益為不動產價值形成之基礎,不動產估價中以一年之純收益除以資本化率推估不動產價值。顯然,不動產的收益與價值間存在一定關係。資本化率的決定,於預期未來租金收益長期呈成長趨勢時,資本化率應適度調降以合理反映價值上漲之情形;然有效資本化率的決定,尚需考慮短期租金變動。於景氣繁榮高峰階段,理性的投資者應理解租金已無成長空間,景氣循環終將衰退而不願追高;相反地,於景氣循環谷底階段,應理解租金的成長空間極大,景氣循環終將快速反彈。是以,透過資本化率的分析,可觀察投資者的理性行為。 本計畫擬參考國外相關文獻分析方式,探討我國不動產實體市 Income is the fundamental of real estate value, thus we divide annual net operating income by a capitalization rate to measure real estate value. Apparently, there is a specific relationship between income and value of real estate. When the long-run trend of future rental income is expected to growth upwardly, capitalization rates should be lower in order to reflect the appreciations of real estate value appropriately. In addition, effective capitalization rates should consider the short-run rental changes. Rational investors should realize that rents have no growing potential at the cyclical peaks considering the following recessions; contrarily, rents have abundant growing potential at the troughs considering the cyclical rebounds. Hence, investor rationality would be observed by analyzing capitalization rates. In this project, we will refer the methodologies in relevant foreign literatures to discuss the rationality in the property market and the security market of real estate in Taiwan, moreover, we also analyze that if real estate appraisers are more rational than investors

Topics: 理性預期, 資本化率, 不動產投資, 理性行為
Year: 2009
OAI identifier: oai:http://ir.lib.pccu.edu.tw/:987654321/2137
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