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Manipulation in Political Stock Markets

By Jan Hansen, Carsten Schmidt and Martin Strobel


Political stock markets (PSM) are sometimes seen as substitutes for opinion polls. On the bases of a behavioral model, specific preconditions were drawn out under which manipulation in PSM can weaken this argument. Evidence for manipulation is reported from the data of two separate PSM during the Berlin 99 state elections

Topics: prognosis, political stock markets, decisive vote illusion, manipulation, 330 Wirtschaft, ddc:330
Publisher: Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät
Year: 2001
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