Skip to main content
Article thumbnail
Location of Repository

The role of the basic state in the ENSO-monsoon relationship and implications for predictability

By A.G. Turner, P.M. Inness and J.M. Slingo

Abstract

The impact of systematic model errors on a coupled simulation of the Asian Summer monsoon and its interannual variability is studied. Although the mean monsoon climate is reasonably well captured, systematic errors in the equatorial Pacific mean that the monsoon-ENSO teleconnection is rather poorly represented in the GCM. A system of ocean-surface heat flux adjustments is implemented in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans in order to reduce the systematic biases. In this version of the GCM, the monsoon-ENSO teleconnection is better simulated, particularly the lag-lead relationships in which weak monsoons precede the peak of El Nino. In part this is related to changes in the characteristics of El Nino, which has a more realistic evolution in its developing phase. A stronger ENSO amplitude in the new model version also feeds back to further strengthen the teleconnection. These results have important implications for the use of coupled models for seasonal prediction of systems such as the monsoon, and suggest that some form of flux correction may have significant benefits where model systematic error compromises important teleconnections and modes of interannual variability

Topics: 551
Publisher: Royal Meteorological Society
Year: 2005
OAI identifier: oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:1051

Suggested articles

Citations

  1. (2003). Anthropogenic climate change for 1860 to 2100 simulated with the HadCM3 model under updated emission scenarios.
  2. (2001). ENSIP: the El Nin˜o simulation intercomparison project.
  3. (1997). Global precipitation: A 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model outputs. doi
  4. (2005). Indian Ocean Climate and Dipole Variability in Hadley Centre Coupled GCMs. doi
  5. (2001). Influence of mean state changes on the structure of ENSO in a tropical coupled GCM.
  6. (1992). Monsoon and ENSO: Selectively interactive systems. doi
  7. (1998). Monsoons: Processes, predictability, and prospects for prediction. doi
  8. (2003). Response of the Indian Monsoon and ENSO–monsoon teleconnections to enhanced greenhouse effect in the CNRM coupled model.
  9. (2000). The impact of new physical parametrizations in the Hadley Centre climate model: doi

To submit an update or takedown request for this paper, please submit an Update/Correction/Removal Request.