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Do Surges in International Capital Inflows Influence the Likelihood of Banking Crises?: Cross-Country Evidence on Bonanzas in Capital Inflows and Bonanza-Boom-Bust Cycles

By Julián Caballero

Abstract

This paper asks whether bonanzas (surges) in net capital inflows increase the probability of banking crises and whether this is necessarily through a lending boom mechanism. A fixed effects regression analysis indicates that a baseline bonanza, identified as a surge of one standard deviation from trend, increases the odds of a banking crisis by three times, even in the absence of a lending boom. Thus, a bonanza raises the likelihood of a crisis from an unconditional probability of 4.4 percent to 12 percent. Larger windfalls of capital (two-s.d. bonanzas) increase the odds of a crisis by eight times. The joint occurrence of a bonanza and a lending boom raises these odds even more. Decomposing flows into FDI, portfolio-equity and debt indicates that bonanzas in all flows increase the probability of crises when the windfall takes place jointly with a lending boom. Thus, windfalls in all types of flows exacerbate the deleterious effects of credit. However, surges in portfolio-equity flows seem to have an independent effect, even in the absence of a lending boom. Furthermore, emerging economies exhibit greater odds of crises after a windfall of capital.

Topics: Setor Financeiro, Financial Sector, Sector financiero, Crises Financeiras e Estabilização Econômica, Financial Crises & Economic Stabilization, Crisis financieras y estabilización económica
Year: 2014
OAI identifier: oai:brik.iadb.org:iadb/71178
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