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The maximum incremental social tolerable irreversible costs (MISTICs) and other benefits and costs of introducing transgenic maize in the EU-15

By Justus Wesseler, Sara Scatasta and Eleonora Nillesen

Abstract

The decision to release a new transgenic crop variety for planting in the European Union (EU) is a decision under irreversibility and uncertainty. We use a real option model to assess the ex-ante incremental benefits and costs of the decision to release Bt maize and HT maize in the EU-15 member states. The analysis uses Eurostat data for modelling the benefits and costs of non-transgenic maize using partial equilibrium models. The farm-level benefits and costs of Bt maize and HT maize are derived from field trials conducted within the EU-funded ECOGEN project in combination with secondary data sources. Adoption curves, hurdle rates and Maximum Incremental Social Tolerable Irreversible Costs (MISTICs) are calculated at country level for selected EU-15 member states. In general, the results show that the MISTICs on a per capita level are very small confirming previous results calculated in values for the year 1995. The MISTICs per farm are much larger. This indicates a problem for decision makers.

Topics: Q51 - Valuation of Environmental Effects, O33 - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes, Q18 - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy
Year: 2007
DOI identifier: 10.1016/j.pedobi.2007.04.004
OAI identifier: oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:33229

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