Vaccine That Reduces Viral Load Set Point


Vaccines designed to induce cell-mediated immune responses against human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)–1 are being developed. Such vaccines are unlikely to provide sterilizing immunity but may be associated with reduced viral set points after infection. We modeled the potential impact of a vaccine that reduces viral set point after infection, using natural his-tory data from 311 HIV-1 seroconverters. Log-normal para-metric regression models were used to estimate the log me-dian time to events of interest. Relative times were estimated for those with viral load set points of 30,000 copies/mL (ref-erence group) versus those with lower viral set points. The time to key clinical events in the course of HIV-1 disease progression was significantly extended for those with viral set points 0.5–1.25 log10 copies/mL lower than the reference group. By quantifying the anticipated clinical benefits as

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