Hydrological models, mathematical modelling of hydrological processes, climate changes, reservoir routing, the Lake Burtnieks. The Lake Burtnieks with around lying areas is one of the unique objects of the nature in Latvia. In this paper the analysis of mathematic modelling results for the rivers ’ runoff in the Lake Burtnieks watershed and water level of the lake are presented. First time for the Lake Burtnieks is demonstrated possibility to utilise regular observations of meteorological elements and to use mathematical model, which is adapted to natural conditions for the simulation of daily runoff and water level with a high statistical significance. The efficiency criterion R2 differs from 0.57 to 0.80 but the correlation coefficient r is from 0.8 to 0.9. Changing meteorological data according to the given scenario of climate changes we can obtain different parameters of the predictable hydrological regime in the future. Results of the study are widely applicable including the calculation of nutrient loading from the catchment area as well
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