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Climate change impacts on the potential productivity of corn and winter wheat in their primary United States growing regions. Climatic Change

By Robert Brown, Robert A. Brown and Norman J. Rosenberg

Abstract

Abstract. We calculate the impacts of climate effects inferred from three atmospheric general cir-culation models (GCMs) at three levels of climate change severity associated with change in global mean temperature (GMT) of 1.0, 2.5 and 5.0 C and three levels of atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]) – 365 (no CO2 fertilization effect), 560 and 750 ppm – on the potential production of dryland winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and corn (Zea mays L.) for the primary (current) U.S. growing regions of each crop. This analysis is a subset of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) which has the goal of integrating the linkages and feedbacks among human activities and resulting greenhouse gas emissions, changes in atmospheric composition and resulting climate change, and impacts on terrestrial systems. A set of representative farms was designed for each of the primary production regions studied and the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC) was used to simulate crop response to climate change. The GCMs applied were the Goddard Institute of Spac

Year: 1999
OAI identifier: oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.455.700
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