ProbShakemap: A Python toolbox propagating source uncertainty to ground motion prediction for urgent computing applications

Seismic urgent computing enables early assessment of an earthquake’s impact by delivering rapid simulation-based ground-shaking forecasts. This information can be used by local authorities and disaster risk managers to inform decisions about rescue and mitigation activities in the affected areas. Uncertainty quantification for urgent computing applications stands as one of the most challenging tasks. Present-day practice accounts for the uncertainty stemming from Ground Motion Models (GMMs), but neglects the uncertainty originating from the source model, which, in the first minutes after an earthquake, is only known approximately. In principle, earthquake source uncertainty can be propagated to ground motion predictions with physics-based simulations of an ensemble of earthquake scenarios capturing source variability. However, full ensemble simulation is unfeasible under emergency conditions with strict time constraints. Here we present ProbShakemap, a Python toolbox that generates multi-scenario ensembles and delivers ensemble-based forecasts for urgent source uncertainty quantification. The toolbox implements GMMs to efficiently propagate source uncertainty from the ensemble of scenarios to ground motion predictions at a set of Points of Interest (POIs), while also accounting for model uncertainty (by accommodating multiple GMMs, if available) along with their intrinsic uncertainty. ProbShakemap incorporates functionalities from two open-source toolboxes routinely implemented in seismic hazard and risk analyses: the USGS ShakeMap software and the OpenQuake-engine. ShakeMap modules are implemented to automatically select the set and weights of GMMs available for the region struck by the earthquake, whereas the OpenQuake-engine libraries are used to compute ground shaking over a set of points by randomly sampling the available GMMs. ProbShakemap provides the user with a set of tools to explore, at each POI, the predictive distribution of ground motion values encompassing source uncertainty, model uncertainty and the inherent GMMs variability. Our proposed method is quantitatively tested against the 30 October 2016 Mw 6.5 Norcia, and the 6 February 2023 Mw 7.8 Pazarcik earthquakes. We also illustrate the differences between ProbShakemap and ShakeMap output.Published105748JCR Journa

The International Geoethics Research Infrastructure

This article is includes in the Special Issue "25 Years of Advancing Geoethics and Social Geosciences at INGV " of the Journal of Geoethics and Social GeosciencesThe development of geoethics has made remarkable progress in recent years, involving a growing number of scholars from various disciplines. This has led to the creation of spaces dedicated to sharing reflections, points of view, and study material. The network of relationships between scholars has significatively incremented both physical and virtual spaces for discussions strengthened conceptual coherence in geoethical thought, anchoring reflections in the historical evolution of the discipline and promoting further developments through open analysis. At the heart of this network is the International Association for Promoting Geoethics (IAPG), founded in 2012. More recently, two new bodies have joined this network: the Commission on Geoethics of the International Union of Geological Sciences (IUGS), established in February 2023, which serves as the supporting branch of the IAPG to the IUGS and is the official body addressing geoethics and social geosciences for the Union; and the Chair on Geoethics of the International Council for Philosophy and Human Sciences (CIPSH), established in January 2024, whose aim is to broaden the international research network by promoting interdisciplinary initiatives that integrate geosciences, humanities, and social sciences through geoethics. These three bodies together represent the International Geoethics Research Infrastructure (IGRI), built over years of activity in geoethics at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Rome, Italy. It also includes the School on Geoethics and Natural Issues (the “Schola”), founded in 2019, and two editorial initiatives. This paper provides an overview of the foundations of geoethics and outlines the progressive development of the international research infrastructure supporting it.Published1-20OS: Terza missioneN/A or not JC

HSIT system: Citizen Participation in Seismology for Data Collection and Enhanced Understanding of Earthquake Effects

Hai Sentito Il Terremoto (HSIT: Did You Feel the Earthquake?) is one of the longest-running citizen science projects on the web. Launched experimentally in 1996 and fully operational since 2007, HSIT has collected data on over 16,800 earthquakes felt in Italy through more than 1,500,000 questionnaires submitted by citizens. Of these, nearly 30,000 participants are registered with HSIT, ensuring continuous engagement across the national territory. The results of this collaboration are bidirectional: citizens contribute their experience of earthquake perception, forming a core dataset that provides localized information. In return, they receive real-time feedback on the earthquake's effects on their region, represented in macroseismic intensity using the Mercalli (MCS) and European (EMS) scales. This partnership enables seismologists to access high-resolution data for analyzing territorial responses to seismic events, including attenuation laws, identifying amplification and/or attenuation zones, and perception patterns based on urban characteristics and behavioral factors. Citizen involvement has expanded the scope of the investigation to include moderate-to-low magnitude earthquakes and distant areas affected by stronger quakes. Registered participants, in particular, gain awareness of earthquakes as ongoing, active phenomena, shifting from a perception of rare catastrophic events to a continuous focus on regional seismic risks. The HSIT project bridges the gap between scientific knowledge and common understanding, fostering a shared experience of living in earthquake-prone regions with awareness and respect for associated risks and preventive measures.Published1-20OS: Terza missioneOST4 Descrizione in tempo reale del terremoto, del maremoto, loro predicibilità e impattoN/A or not JC

Ionospheric tomography for SWARM satellite orbit determination using single-frequency GNSS data

Ionospheric tomography offers three-dimensional (3D) description of the electron density distribution, enabling the direct incorporation of electron density data into the slant total electron content (STEC) computation. As a result, STEC derived from tomography helps mitigate the ionospheric delay experienced in the line of sight between global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) and satellites positioned in low Earth orbits (LEO). Tomography can therefore be effectively employed to correct single-frequency GNSS observations and allow enhanced positioning of spaceborne platforms. We demonstrate the accuracy and performance of a global-scale ionospheric tomography method for determining satellite orbits, utilizing single-frequency GNSS measurements combined with a precise point positioning (PPP) algorithm. We compare the tomographic outcomes against orbit determination derived from the GRoup and PHase ionospheric correction (GRAPHIC) observable and based on an ionospheric climatological model. Near the peak of solar cycle 24, the overall accuracy achieved with tomography was around 3.8 m. notably, compared to the background climatological model, tomography demonstrated improvements ranging from 15 to 20%. The GRAPHIC method outperformed tomography, achieving an accuracy of 0.7 m, whereas we obtained around 7 m accuracy when no ionospheric model is employed. Although the developed ionospheric tomography has yet to match the precision of GRAPHIC, our results bring us relatively closer to this objective.Published26OSA3: Climatologia e meteorologia spazialeJCR Journa

Are Foreshocks Fore‐Shocks?

Foreshocks are spatially clustered seismic events preceding large earthquakes. Since the dawn of seismology, their occurrence has been identified as a possible mechanism leading to further crustal destabilization, hence, to major failures. However, several cases occurred without any previous anomalous seismic activity, so that the hypothesis of foreshocks as reliable seismic precursors fails to pass statistical tests. Here, we perform an all‐round statistical comparative analysis of seismicity in Southern California to assess whether any differences can be identified between swarms and foreshocks. Our results suggest that extremely variable seismic patterns can forerun mainshocks, even though they tend to be preceded by clusters with more numerous events spread over larger areas than swarms and with a wider range of magnitudes. We provide a physical explanation of such dissimilarity and conclude, despite it, that foreshocks can hardly be reliable short‐ term precursors of large earthquakes in California.Publishede2023JB027337OST4 Descrizione in tempo reale del terremoto, del maremoto, loro predicibilità e impattoJCR Journa

Comment on “A Seismic Moment Magnitude Scale” by Ranjit Das, Mukat Lal Sharma, Hans Raj Wason, Deepankar Choudhury, and Gabriel Gonzalez

Moment magnitude Mw was first defined by Hiroo Kanamori in the late 1970s, when the availability of new force balance seismometers made it possible to measure the seismic moment M0 with virtually no limits in the frequency passband. For this reason, Mw does not become saturated even for the largest earthquakes ever recorded. Mw has been chosen in such a way that it coincides best with the previous definitions of magnitude (Ms, ML, mb, etc.) on certain ranges of values but can deviate significantly from them within other ranges. A few years ago, Das and colleagues proposed a new moment magnitude scale Mwg with the aim of better reproducing the values of mb and Ms over their entire range and to better predict the energy ES radiated by earthquakes. We show that there was no need to define such a new scale and that Mwg is not even optimal to achieve the goal of matching ES.Published2270–2274OST2 Deformazione e Hazard sismico e da maremotoJCR Journa

Assessing Shallow Soft Deposits through Near-Surface Geophysics and UAV-SfM: Application in Pocket Beaches Environments

This study employs a multimethod approach to investigate the sediment distribution in two pocket beaches, Ramla Beach and Mellieha S Beach, in Malta. Both study sites were digitally reconstructed using unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) photogrammetry. For each case, an ERT and a dense network of ambient seismic noise measurements processed through a horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) technique were acquired. Electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) analysis enables the estimation of sediment thickness in each beach. HVSR analysis revealed peaks related to beach sediments overlying limestone rocks in both sites and also indicated a deeper stratigraphic contact in Mellieha S Beach. Based on ERT measurements, sediment thickness is calculated for each HVSR measurement. Interpolation of results allows for bedrock surface modelling in each case study, and when combined with digital terrain models (DTMs) derived from photogrammetric models, sediment volumes are estimated for each site. The geometry of this surface is analyzed from a geological perspective, showing structural control of sediment distribution due to a normal fault in Mellieha S Beach and stratigraphic control facilitated by a highly erodible surface in Ramla Beach. The results emphasize the importance of adopting a three-dimensional perspective in coastal studies for precise sediment volume characterization and a deeper understanding of pocket beach dynamics. This practical multimethod approach presented here offers valuable tools for future coastal research and effective coastal management, facilitating informed decision making amidst the growing vulnerability of coastal zones to climate change impacts.This work was partially supported by the project Satellite Investigation to study POcket BEach Dynamics (SIPOBED, SRF-2021-2S1, PI: Sebastiano D’Amico),the project Multi-disciplinary monitoring system for a resilient management of coastal areas (REMACO) funded by the INTERREG V A–Italy-Malta Capitalization Programme, the INGV Project “Ricerca 703 Libera” BR2019.23 (“Unveiling silent faults in low strain-rates regions through the integration 704 of high-resolution geophysical and seismological analyses” P.I. Fabio Villani), and by the Internationalisation Partnership & Awards Scheme Plus (IPAS+) supported by the Malta Council for Science and Technology through the project “Near-surface geophysics and geomatic applied to coastal systems” (IPAS-2022-020).Published40OSA4: Ambiente marino, fascia costiera ed Oceanografia operativaJCR Journa

b value enlightens different rheological behaviour in Campi Flegrei caldera

The Campi Flegrei caldera is one of the most dangerous volcanoes in the world and since 2005 it is in unrest. Here we evaluate the 3D tomography of the b value at the Campi Flegrei volcanic area revealing a very good correlation with the structure of the hydrothermal system involved in the bradiseismic phenomenon. More precisely, we observe the smallest b-values where we expect the higher stress/strain concentration, namely in the caprock, and for the deepest seismicity. Conversely, the largest b values are observed where the porosity of the medium allows the passage of the volcanic gases toward the surface. Values of b close to typical tectonic ones are observed where the presence of faulting structures is well documented.Published275JCR Journa

First evidence of a geodetic anomaly in the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) ground deformation pattern revealed by DInSAR and GNSS measurements during the 2021–2023 escalating unrest phase

Campi Flegrei caldera is an Italian high-risk volcano experiencing a progressively more intense long-term uplift, accompanied by increasing seismicity and geochemical emissions over the last two decades. Ground deformation shows an axisymmetric bell-shaped pattern, with a maximum uplift of about 120 cm, from 2005, in the caldera central area. We analyzed Sentinel-1 and COSMO-SkyMed Multi-Temporal DInSAR measurements and GNSS data to reveal and investigate a geodetic anomaly that has clearly manifested since 2021, locally deviating from the typical bell-shaped deformation pattern. This anomaly is located east of Pozzuoli town, in the Mt. Olibano-–Accademia area, covers an area of about 1.3 km and shows, in comparison to surrounding areas, a maximum uplift deficit of about 9 cm between 2021 and 2023. To investigate the anomaly causes, we analyzed the caldera seismicity and inverted the DInSAR data to determine the primary source of the ground deformation pattern, which is consistent with a penny-shaped source located approximately 3800 m beneath the Pozzuoli town, with a radius of about 1200 m. We also found that the time evolution of the uplift deficit in the geodetic anomaly area correlates well with the earthquake occurrence, with the greater magnitude events clustering in this area. These considerations suggest the geodetic anomaly is a local response to the tensile stress regime produced by the inflating primary deformation source. This phenomenon can be influenced by the Mt. Olibano–Accademia lava domes lithological heterogeneities that may induce a localized reaction to ground deformation during the in flationary phase. Our interpretation aligns with the concentration of earthquakes and hydrothermal fluid emissions in this area, indicating the presence of faults, fractures, and fluid circulation. Accordingly, the geodetic anomaly area represents a zone of crustal weakness that requires careful monitoring and study.Published104060JCR Journa

Lessons Learnt from Monitoring the Etna Volcano Using an IoT Sensor Network through a Period of Intense Eruptive Activity

This paper describes the successes and failures after 4 years of continuous operation of a network of sensors, communicating nodes, and gateways deployed on the Etna Volcano in Sicily since 2019, including a period of Etna intense volcanic activity that occurred in 2021 and resulted in over 60 paroxysms. It documents how the installation of gateways at medium altitude allowed for data collection from sensors up to the summit craters. Most of the sensors left on the volcanic edifice during winters and during this period of intense volcanic activity were destroyed, but the whole gateway infrastructure remained fully operational, allowing for a very fruitful new field campaign two years later, in August 2023. Our experience has shown that the best strategy for IoT deployment on very active and/or high-altitude volcanoes like Etna is to permanently install gateways in areas where they are protected both from meteorological and volcanic hazards, that is mainly at the foot of the volcanic edifice, and to deploy temporary sensors and communicating nodes in the more exposed areas during field trips or in the summer season.Published1577OSV3: Sviluppo di nuovi sistemi osservazionali e di analisi ad alta sensibilitàJCR Journa