Will robot replace workers? Assessing the impact of robots on employment and wages with meta-analysis

This study conducts a meta-analysis to assess the effects of robotization on employment and wages, compiling data from 33 studies with 644 estimates on employment and a subset of 19 studies with 195 estimates on wages. We identify a publication bias towards negative outcomes, especially concerning wages. After correcting for this bias, the actual impact appears minimal. Thus, concerns about the disruptive effects of robots on employment and the risk of widespread technological unemployment may be exaggerated or not yet empirically supported. While this does not preclude that robots will be capable of gaining greater disruptive potential in the future or that they are not already disruptive in specific contexts, the evidence to date suggests their aggregate effect is negligible

A perfect storm: First-nature geography and economic development

Is geography destiny? What is the role of first-nature geography in determining prosperity? This paper estimates the effect of randomly removing and introducing favorable first-nature geography to a specific region using a difference in difference design. In 1825 a storm created a new natural navigable waterway, bringing trade and prosperity to the otherwise relatively isolated northwestern Denmark. 700 years prior, the same event happened in reverse, when a previous channel closed up between 1086 and 1208. The elasticity of geography-induced market access is estimated to be 1.6, corresponding to 26.7 percent population growth within a generation of the event. Demonstrated mechanisms include trade, fertility, fishing, and the rise of manufacturing. The central finding is replicated in reverse in a register of dated archaeological sites. The 1086-1208 closing caused fewer buildings and sites containing coins. The general insight is the same: First-nature geography determines the levels and location of prosperity

Impact and policy supporting Thailand innovation driven enterprise: Orchestrating university innovation and entrepreneurship ecosystem with public and private stakeholders

This research paper aims to investigate the impediments faced by innovation-driven enterprises in Thailand and to explore the current measures, policies, and mechanisms related to innovation-driven enterprises (IDEs)' development both domestically and internationally. The study encompasses a comprehensive approach, including an analysis of an innovation entrepreneur database comprising 320 investors and 883 IDEs. Moreover, semi-structure in-depth interviews were conducted with three investors, twenty-two IDEs' founders, eight executives, and experts from various sectors, including government, university incubators, and the private sector in Thailand. Through this multifaceted investigation, this paper sheds light on the key factors that hinder the success of IDEs in Thailand, which primarily revolve around the quality of entrepreneurs (Team), Product and Market Fit, and Support. These factors collectively impact the depth of knowledge, business incubation, acceleration programs, and the effectiveness of laws, measures, and policies in supporting innovation capability development within IDEs. In addition, this paper presents a framework for Thailand's IDEs hub, facilitating the connection between the university's innovation and entrepreneurship ecosystem with public and private stakeholders. This framework serves as a mechanism to address the identified hindrances and foster a conducive environment for IDEs development. To address the obstacles, this paper proposes three crucial strategies, namely, (1) talent management, (2) ease of doing scaleup, and (3) availability of funding. These strategies are envisioned to counteract the identified challenges and can be effectively implemented through an operating model and practical working procedures tailored to suit the specific context of Thailand

Klimaneutralität und Auswirkungen auf die Steuerstruktur

Von der Erreichung des Ziels der Klimaneutralität ist ein nicht unbeträchtlicher Teil der öffentlichen Steuereinnahmen betroffen. Es ist davon auszugehen, dass bis zu rund 3,8 Prozent des Steueraufkommens zukünftig verloren gehen könnten und weitere 3,9 Prozent, wenn bei den entsprechenden Abgaben keine Anpassungen bei der Bemessungsgrundlage vorgenommen werden. Zusammen würde dies 7,7 Prozent der Steuereinnahmen ausmachen bzw. knapp 25 Prozent des Aufkommens aus der Lohnsteuer und veranlagten Einkommensteuer betragen. Auch wenn die Transformation im Energiebereich schrittweise erfolgt und damit auch die Auswirkungen auf die öffentlichen Finanzen erst nach und nach spürbar werden, sollte bereits derzeit diese Entwicklung berücksichtigt werden. Die längere Übergangszeit erlaubt die Umsetzung von Maßnahmen, die eine längere Vorlaufzeit beanspruchen, birgt aber auch die Gefahr, dass Maßnahmen aufgeschoben und letztendlich übereilt gesetzt werden und damit auf Kosten des Wirtschaftsstandorts gehen. Zentral für den Wirtschaftsstandort und die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit wäre die Hebung von Effizienzpotenzialen und damit verbunden eine Reduktion der öffentlichen Ausgaben. In mehreren Untersuchungen hat EcoAustria gezeigt, dass sowohl im internationalen als auch im bundesländerübergreifenden Benchmark-Vergleich Österreich zwar hohe Ausgaben aufweist, die Ergebnisse aber zumeist im Mittelfeld zu finden sind. Dies ist häufig eine Folge der Trennung der Aufgaben-, Ausgaben- und Finanzierungsverantwortung im föderalen System hierzulande. Es sollte auf jeden Fall davon Abstand genommen werden, Steuern zu erhöhen die den Wirtschaftsstandort besonders beeinträchtigen. Zu diesen Steuern zählen insbesondere die Lohn- und Einkommensteuer aber auch die Körperschaftsteuer. Andere lohnbezogene Abgaben, wie beispielsweise der Beitrag zum Familienlastenausgleichsfonds, oder eine Vermögensteuer dämpfen die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung ebenso in verstärktem Maße und reduzieren die internationale Wettbewerbsfähigkeit. Bereits derzeit konzentriert sich die Besteuerung in Österreich sehr stark auf die erzielten Einkommen. Zusammen mit der im internationalen Vergleich hohen Abgabenquote stellt dies ArbeitnehmerInnen und Unternehmen vor besondere Herausforderungen, um im internationalen Wettbewerb bestehen zu können

The external side of Europe's great economic transformation: International trade in services

Europe's digital transition is starting to bear fruits. Europe's economic landscape is becoming increasingly digital, with sectors like information and communication technology (ICT) capturing a growing share of EU GDP. This Policy Brief examines the impact of these economic shifts on Europe's trade profile and the policies that the EU can pursue to support this transformation

The Length of Schooling and the Timing of Family Formation

Individuals typically traverse several life phases before forming a family. We analyze whether changing the duration of one of these phases, the education phase, affects the timing of marriage and childbearing. For this purpose, we exploit the introduction of short school years (SSYs) in Germany in 1966–1967, which compressed the education phase without affecting the curriculum. Based on difference-in-differences regressions and German Micro Census data, we find that SSY exposure affects the timing of marriage for individuals in all secondary school tracks and shifts forward the birth of the first child mainly for academic-track graduates. This highlights that education policies might not only affect family formation through human capital accumulation, but also through changing the duration of earlier life phases. This is important as not only age at marriage and first birth increases in many countries, but also the duration of the education phase. (JEL codes: I26, J12, J13, J24

Disclosure of social and human capital in the report on sustainable development of agricultural enterprises

The study aims to acquaint the scientific and professional community with the Sustainability Reporting Platform, which is the basis for preparing the ESGI report (Sustainable Development and Investment Report). This article describes standardized forms and indicators for measuring, preparing and disclosing human and social capital information because this component of agricultural production is the most sensitive and uncontrolled during the period of martial law. The Sustainability Reporting Platform includes three components: ESGI report, webinars (videos, materials) and publications (scientific articles, presentations). The ESGI report consists of standardized reporting forms and survey questionnaires. Standardized forms enable comparisons of sustainability indicators among different economic entities that helps to adjust their business strategies and goals. The survey questionnaires provide each economic entity with the opportunity of in-depth self-assessment of sustainable practices and define their sustainability goals by 2030. One of the main provisions of the ESGI report is consideration of the size of an enterprise (micro, small, medium, large). In particular, regarding social and human capital, additional information is not required to be disclosed if all employees of an enterprise receive adequate salaries and are covered by social protection (sickness leave, social leave, disability benefits). For comprehensive measurement and presentation of social aspects of the enterprise's economic activity, the authors proposed 10 indicators: 1) material social risks and opportunities; 2) social risks and transition opportunities; 3) social risks of martial law; 4) diversity of human capital; 5) work-life balance; 6) employment dynamics; 7) adequate salary; 8) education and career development; 9) occupational health, safety and hygiene; 10) freedom of collective bargaining and social dialogue. Reference levels have been introduced for each indicator. The resulting matrices allow to convert the actual data into points and to draw the diagram that visualizes the measurement results. Webinars for agribusinesses interested in updates of the information about sustainability measurement and reporting represents a promising direction for further development of the Sustainability Reporting Platform. Another important direction is the improvement of the ESGI report by introducing more accurate indicative assessment levels based on the data received from the Platform users.Метою дослідження є ознайомлення науково-професійної спільноти із Платформою звітності сталого розвитку, яка служить основою для підготовки ESGI-звіту (Звіт зі сталого розвитку та інвестицій). У даній роботі зосереджено увагу на описі стандартизованих форм і показників для вимірювання, підготовки та розкриття інформації про людський і соціальний капітал. Адже ця складова сільськогосподарського виробництва є найбільш чутливою та неконтрольованою в період воєнного стану. Представлено Платформу звітності сталого розвитку, яка включає три складові: ESGI-звіт, вебінари (відеозаписи, матеріали) та публікації (наукові статті, презентації). ESGI-звіт складається зі стандартизованих форм звітності та анкет опитування. Стандартизовані форми нарешті дозволять вирішити важливу проблему – можливість порівняння показників різних суб’єктів господарювання для коригування власних бізнес-стратегій і цілей. Анкети опитування забезпечать кожному суб’єкту господарювання глибокий рівень самооцінки сталих практик і дозволять визначити свої цілі до 2030 року. Одним із основних положень у підготовці ESGI-звіту є врахування розміру підприємства (мікро-, малі, середні, великі). Зокрема, в частині соціального та людського капіталу не вимагається розкривати додаткову інформацію, якщо всі власні працівники підприємства отримують адекватну заробітну плату та охоплені соціальним захистом (лікарняні, відпускні, виплати по інвалідності). Для комплексного вимірювання та представлення соціальних аспектів економічної діяльності підприємства авторами запропоновано 10 показників: 1) матеріальні соціальні ризики та можливості; 2) соціальні ризики та можливості переходу; 3) соціальні ризики воєнного стану; 4) різноманітність людського капіталу; 5) баланс між роботою та особистим життям; 6) динаміка зайнятості; 7) адекватна заробітна плата; 8) освіта та кар’єрний розвиток; 9) охорона праці, безпека та гігієна; 10) свобода колективних переговорів і соціального діалогу. За кожним показником введено орієнтирні рівні. Матриці дозволяють перевести фактичні дані в бали, а діаграма – унаочнити результати вимірювання. Перспективним напрямком подальших досліджень є постійна підтримка Платформи звітності сталого розвитку шляхом проведення вебінарів для суб’єктів агробізнесу, які зацікавлені отримувати інформацію про зміни в цьому питанні. Іншим важливим напрямком є вдосконалення самого ESGI-звіту через введення більш точних орієнтирних рівнів оцінки на основі даних, отриманих від користувачів Платформи

Tariff spillovers and new rules for multilateral tariff negotiations

Some countries have voiced unease about differences between their own tariff rates and those of major trading partners, calling for more "reciprocity". These calls raise the question how large the negative spillover effects of countries' tariffs on others have become over time. Given a presumed sense of "reciprocity" at the end of the Uruguay Round and for subsequent WTO accessions, an important question for the future of multilateral trade negotiations may be how cross-cutting formulae or "rules" could be developed that might address such spillovers. In this paper we (i) analyze the spillover effects of tariffs and (ii) explore possible tariff liberalization rules and their economic effects, employing the WTO Global Trade Model. We measure the spillover effects of tariffs by the export or terms of trade losses incurred by trading partners. The analysis shows that there are large differences in the per capita spillover effects of tariff rates and that about 70% of the spillover effects can be explained by initial tariff rates, the share in global imports, population, and a product's trade elasticity. Five possible tariff liberalization rules are introduced, with the fifth one being based on the determinants of the negative spillover effects on other countries. Simulating the tariff liberalization rules shows that they would address such spillovers to different extents and lead to global export increases of about 3%, with increases of more than 20% for some countries. Real income effects are positive in most regions, although welfare does not increase in all regions because of negative terms of trade effects. Under the fifth rule, real income and terms of trade effects are related to the adverse spillover effects imposed in other countries, i.e. regions generating larger adverse spillover effects benefit from smaller real income gains or incur larger real income losses. However, this relation is not perfect, suggesting that flexibility may be needed in the implementation of the rule

Work-from-Home and Cities: An Elementary Spatial Model

This paper analyzes the urban impacts of hybrid WFH in the simplest possible model, relying on Leontief utility and production functions and other simplifying assumptions. The analysis shows that introduction of WFH raises both the wage and land consumption of households while shrinking the size of the business district and reducing business land rent. When WFH requires home work-space, the city's overall spatial size increases, with residential rents rising in the suburbs while falling near the center. The decline in business rent and the rotation of the residential rent contour match empirical evidence showing that WFH reduces office-building values and flattens the residential rent gradient

Untapped potential: Mobile device ownership and mobile payments in Canada

Mobile phones are ubiquitous around the world, making them obvious conduits for innovative payment technologies, or mobile payments. In Canada, five out of six adults regularly use a mobile phone. However, they have not started to use mobile payments at the same rate as other payment innovations, such as contactless card payments. In this paper, we present a twostage model of mobile phone and mobile payment use. An important feature of the model is that it controls for selectivity due to mobile device adoption. Controlling for selection into mobile phone usage reveals unobserved factors that have negative effects on mobile phone usage but a positive effect on the propensity to use mobile-type payments. These factors could be preferences or constraints. We present empirical evidence that providing people without a mobile phone access to payments with features similar to mobile payments could result in usage rates exceeding the current use among mobile phone owners. Therefore, people who are unable to acquire or choose not to own a mobile device might have unmet payment needs