Labor Market Externalities of Pre-Retirement Employment Protection

Using population-level administrative data, we study labor market externalities stemming from age-specific employment protection legislation (EPL) targeted towards older workers. Our results show no economically meaningful overall effects of the EPL on employment or earnings of either men or women approaching eligibility. Considering separately incumbent workers and non-employees we find small positive and small negative employment effects for the former and the latter groups, respectively

Open-ended treasury purchases: From market functioning to financial easing

We exploit the Fed's Treasury purchases conducted from March 2020 to March 2022 to assess whether asset purchases can be tailored to accomplish different objectives: restoring market functioning and providing stimulus. We find that, on average, flow effects are significant in the market-functioning (MF) period (March-September 2020), while stock effects are strong in the QE period (September 2020-March 2022). In the MF period, the elevated frequency and size of the purchase operations allowed flow effects to greatly improve relative price deviations, especially at the long-end of the yield curve. But stock effects remained localized, thus not large enough to be stimulative. In contrast, in the QE period, stock effects were stimulative because cross-asset price impacts got larger as the Fed communication and implementation moved toward "traditional" QE, increasing purchases' predictability. Lower uncertainty about the expected size and duration of total purchases facilitated their impounding into prices. Overall, these findings suggest that communication and implementation can be used to tailor the goals of asset purchases

Trust, regulation and trade

Can consumers trust that the food they buy in the supermarket, even if imported, is not harmful to their health? What would be the consequences if their trust in existing health and safety standards were to be undermined by recognizing lower foreign standards? Against the backdrop of public debates (e.g., on the merits of chlorine-washed chicken, banned in the EU, but legal under the proposed TTIP agreement with the United States), this paper discusses the close link between trust, regulation and international trade. It turns out that as local regulatory systems have evolved, they have created a "generalized trust" that promotes economic activity. Aggressive regulatory harmonization through trade agreements could jeopardize the fragile balance of trust and activity

What Is Wrong with Ability-Tracking?

The question of the effects of ability tracking remains unresolved even after decades of research. This is also due to the fact that specific regulations for the stringency of implementing differentiation according to ability and achievement have not been taken into account. The issue is the conditionalization of the effects of ability tracking within differentiating systems. The question is analysed using the example of the German federal states: There are clear differences in the regulation of differentiation (binding nature of recommendations and/or stronger organizational control of schools) and with the "National Educational Panel Study" (NEPS) a data set is available that contains all the information necessary to identify the effects. Three sequentially related aspects of the effects of stringency are analyzed: Sorting and educational attainment, structuring of school classes and educational achievement in secondary school. For educational attainment, there was an increase in achievement at the end of elementary school and greater equality of achievement at the transition without an increase in social inequality. The structuring of school classes showed a decoupling of cognitive and social segregation. And for achievement in secondary school, was an increase in the effects of cognitive composition without an increase in the effects of social background or social segregation, especially in the lower performance areas. This is practically the opposite of the assumptions known from most international comparative studies, according to which strict differentiation does not improve achievement, but only reinforces the effects of social background

Desafios para o financiamento da proteção social no brasil: O Fundo de Amparo ao Trabalhador (FAT) e sua dinâmica orçamentária (2010-2022)

This study aimed to analyze the budget trajectory of the Workers' Support Fund (FAT), contrasting accounting indicators with political and economic factors that may have conditioned its operational planning. The data analysis allowed us to corroborate the hypothesis that the evolution of both revenues and current expenses, in addition to being directly related to ongoing transformations in the Brazilian macroeconomic and occupational structure, proved to be subject to factors external to its governance that interfere in the dynamics fund operations. Such factors are mainly associated with fiscal policy decisions that affected the FAT's financing structure, causing significant revenue losses and compromising financial availability to meet its programmatic social protection demands

Artificial Intelligence: Will boosted productivity lead to better pay?

Künstliche Intelligenz (KI) wird bereits vielfältig von Unternehmen und in der Gesellschaft eingesetzt. Auswirkungen auf die Arbeitswelt werden dabei kontrovers diskutiert: Auf der einen Seite stehen mögliche Produktivitätszuwächse durch KI-Anwendungen, auf der anderen Seite die Sorgen der Beschäftigten, dass KI ihre Arbeitsplätze ersetzen könnte. Deshalb kann gerade die Perspektive der Beschäftigten mehr Klarheit dazu bringen, welche Effekte KI konkret auf ihre Arbeitssituation haben kann. Auswertungen des Sozio-oekonomischen Panels zeigen, dass 37 Prozent der Beschäftigten in Deutschland im Jahr 2020 mit KI-Anwendungen arbeiten. KI-Beschäftigte sind häufig männlich, im Alter von 18 bis 44 Jahren und haben oftmals einen Meister-, Fachhochschul- oder Universitätsabschluss. Sie äußern seltener Sorgen, mit dem technischen Fortschritt nicht mithalten zu können, und mehr Sorgen, dass ihre beruflichen Qualifikationen abgewertet werden könnten. Eine multivariate Analyse zeigt, dass die Bruttostundenlöhne von KI-Beschäftigten durchschnittlich um 4 Prozent höher sind als bei Beschäftigten ohne KI-Nutzung. Dies gilt unabhängig davon, ob Beschäftigte intensiv oder weniger intensiv mit KI-Anwendungen arbeiten. Im Gegensatz zu früheren technologischen Neuerungen, von denen besonders Hochqualifizierte profitieren konnten, zeigt sich der positive Zusammenhang zwischen Lohnhöhe und KI-Nutzung für alle Bildungsgruppen.Artificial intelligence (AI) is already being used in a wide variety of applications both inside and outside the corporate world. AI's effects on the workplace are currently a topic of heated debate since while AI applications offer potential productivity gains for those that work with them, they also threaten their jobs. For this reason, a more detailed view of those affected can provide a clearer picture of the specific effects AI may have on their employment situation. Analysing the results of the 2020 German Socio-Economic Panel shows that, in the survey period, 37 per cent of employees in Germany were working with AI applications. AI-using employees tend to be male, aged between 18 and 44 and either master craftsmen or university graduates. They are less likely to express concerns about their ability to keep up with technological progress and more worried that their professional qualifications could lose their value. A multivariate analysis shows that, regardless of how intensively they work with AI applications, the gross hourly wages of employees who do so are on average 4 per cent higher than those who do not. In contrast to previous technological innovations, which tended to benefit the highly qualified most, there is a positive correlation between pay levels and AI use for all educational groups

Forschungsmonitoring "Arbeit der Zukunft": Ausgabe 24. Oktober bis Dezember 2023 (Berichtszeitraum)

Das Forschungsmonitoring Nr. 24 gibt einen Überblick über aktuelle Studien und Publikationen zur Arbeitswelt der Zukunft für den Berichtszeitraum September bis Dezember 2023. Es orientiert sich an den Schwerpunkten der Forschungsstelle "Arbeit der Zukunft": Digitalisierung und Arbeit der Zukunft, Standards für digitale Arbeitsformen, Beschäftigung im Wandel, Humanisierung der Arbeit 4.0, Atmende Arbeitszeiten und Zeitarrangements, Soziale Innovation, Künstliche Intelligenz und Sozial-ökologische Transformation

Bilanz der Grundrente: Weniger Menschen als erwartet profitieren davon

Im Jahr 2021 führte Deutschland nach jahrelanger Debatte die Grundrente ein, ein Rentenzuschlag für Geringverdienende mit langen Versicherungsbiografien, niedrigen Rentenanwartschaften und geringem Einkommen. Die Einführung dieses komplexen Instruments - laut SPD ein 'sozialpolitischer Meilenstein' - dauerte allerdings zwei Jahre. Die Auswirkungen der Grundrente sind bisher kaum erforscht. Erst seit 2023, mehr als zwei Jahre nach der Einführung, stehen erste Daten zur Auswertung bereit. Es zeigt sich, dass deutlich weniger Menschen von der Grundrente profitieren, als früher angenommen wurde. Ein wesentlicher Grund ist, dass mehr als die Hälfte wegen der Einkommensprüfung keinen Anspruch auf einen Zuschlag hat. Eine Ausweitung der Grundrente, die auch Personen mit längerer Erwerbsunterbrechung einbezieht, oder eine Einführung einer Mindestrente nach dem Vorbild Österreichs oder der Niederlande würde die Einkommenssicherungsfunktion der Rente verbessern. Dies könnte helfen, weitere Reformen sozialverträglich umzusetzen und dem eigentlichen Anspruch einer Grundrente gerecht zu werden

Recognizing the state's "duty to regulate": The mindset needs to shift

As global discussions on IIA reform continue, this Perspective offers one idea on how to help facilitate reform through the shifting of mindsets of arbitrators, States and companies. Recent progress in business and human rights offers valuable lessons for how the power of ideas can contribute to meaningful change

Will robot replace workers? Assessing the impact of robots on employment and wages with meta-analysis

This study conducts a meta-analysis to assess the effects of robotization on employment and wages, compiling data from 33 studies with 644 estimates on employment and a subset of 19 studies with 195 estimates on wages. We identify a publication bias towards negative outcomes, especially concerning wages. After correcting for this bias, the actual impact appears minimal. Thus, concerns about the disruptive effects of robots on employment and the risk of widespread technological unemployment may be exaggerated or not yet empirically supported. While this does not preclude that robots will be capable of gaining greater disruptive potential in the future or that they are not already disruptive in specific contexts, the evidence to date suggests their aggregate effect is negligible