Geopolitics, non-traditional security and political dynasties in Southeast Asia

Southeast Asia is at the crossroads of major global developments, with shifting geopolitical dynamics, economic transitions, and security challenges shaping the region’s trajectory. As the world navigates an increasingly complex international landscape, Southeast Asia's strategic location, economic potential, and evolving political structures place it at the centre of global attention. Over the next few years, five key trends will play a decisive role in shaping the region: the intensifying geopolitical competition between the United States and China, public health challenges such as haze pollution, the resurgence of political dynasties, the adoption of electric vehicles, and non-traditional security threats at sea. This paper discusses the key developments in the Asia-Pacific region with a specific focus on Southeast Asia that will influence the period between 2025-2028 and beyond. These five key trends will shape Southeast Asia and the wider Asia-Pacific region. Addressing these challenges will be crucial to ensuring a sustainable, inclusive, and economically resilient region capable of navigating the complexities of an evolving global order.Full Tex

Biophysical versus machine learning models for predicting rectal and skin temperatures in older adults

This study compares the efficacy of machine learning models to traditional biophysical models in predicting rectal (Tre) and skin (Tsk) temperatures of older adults (≥60 years) during prolonged heat exposure. Five machine learning models were trained on data using 4-fold cross validation from 162 day-long (8-9h) sessions involving 76 older adults across six environments, from thermoneutral to heatwave conditions. These models were compared to three biophysical models: the JOS-3 model, the Gagge two-node model, and an optimised two-node model. Our findings show that machine learning models, particularly ridge regression, outperformed biophysical models in prediction accuracy. The ridge regression model achieved a Root-Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 0.27 °C for Tre, and 0.73 °C for Tsk. Among the best biophysical models, the optimised two-node model achieved an RMSE of 0.40 °C for Tre, while JOS-3 achieved an RMSE of 0.74 °C for Tsk. Of all models, ridge regression had the highest proportion of participants with Tre RMSEs within clinically meaningful thresholds at 70% (<0.3 °C) and the highest proportion for Tsk at 88% (<1.0 °C), tied with the JOS-3 model. Our results suggest machine learning models better capture the complex thermoregulatory responses of older adults during prolonged heat exposure. The study highlights machine learning models' potential for personalised heat risk assessments and real-time predictions. Future research should expand upon training datasets, incorporate more dynamic conditions, and validate models in real-world settings. Integrating these models into home-based monitoring systems or wearable devices could enhance heat management strategies for older adults.Full Tex

EDTA-enhanced phytoextraction: leveraging Ricinus communis for the decontamination of Pb and Cd in agricultural soils

Agricultural soils frequently suffer from human-induced activities, accumulating hazardous contaminants such as lead (Pb) and cadmium (Cd). Given the environmental and human health threats posed by these heavy metals, the need for effective purification methods has intensified. Utilizing plants for pollutant uptake, a process known as phytoextraction, represents a sustainable approach. Ricinus communis, or the castor bean plant, has shown potential in this area. This study examines the combined use of ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid (EDTA) to enhance the phytoextraction capabilities of R. communis. EDTA, a powerful chelating agent, mobilizes Pb and Cd from the soil, making them more bioavailable for plant uptake. While the individual capabilities of EDTA and R. communis in soil remediation have been explored, their combined efficiency and implications for agricultural soil decontamination merit further investigation. This article provides a detailed overview of EDTA-enhanced phytoextraction, highlighting the capacity of R. communis to remove Pb and Cd from contaminated agricultural environments.No Full Tex

Global, regional, and national prevalence of adult overweight and obesity, 1990–2021, with forecasts to 2050: a forecasting study for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Overweight and obesity is a global epidemic. Forecasting future trajectories of the epidemic is crucial for providing an evidence base for policy change. In this study, we examine the historical trends of the global, regional, and national prevalence of adult overweight and obesity from 1990 to 2021 and forecast the future trajectories to 2050. Methods: Leveraging established methodology from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study, we estimated the prevalence of overweight and obesity among individuals aged 25 years and older by age and sex for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2050. Retrospective and current prevalence trends were derived based on both self-reported and measured anthropometric data extracted from 1350 unique sources, which include survey microdata and reports, as well as published literature. Specific adjustment was applied to correct for self-report bias. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models were used to synthesise data, leveraging both spatial and temporal correlation in epidemiological trends, to optimise the comparability of results across time and geographies. To generate forecast estimates, we used forecasts of the Socio-demographic Index and temporal correlation patterns presented as annualised rate of change to inform future trajectories. We considered a reference scenario assuming the continuation of historical trends. Findings: Rates of overweight and obesity increased at the global and regional levels, and in all nations, between 1990 and 2021. In 2021, an estimated 1·00 billion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 0·989–1·01) adult males and 1·11 billion (1·10–1·12) adult females had overweight and obesity. China had the largest population of adults with overweight and obesity (402 million [397–407] individuals), followed by India (180 million [167–194]) and the USA (172 million [169–174]). The highest age-standardised prevalence of overweight and obesity was observed in countries in Oceania and north Africa and the Middle East, with many of these countries reporting prevalence of more than 80% in adults. Compared with 1990, the global prevalence of obesity had increased by 155·1% (149·8–160·3) in males and 104·9% (95% UI 100·9–108·8) in females. The most rapid rise in obesity prevalence was observed in the north Africa and the Middle East super-region, where age-standardised prevalence rates in males more than tripled and in females more than doubled. Assuming the continuation of historical trends, by 2050, we forecast that the total number of adults living with overweight and obesity will reach 3·80 billion (95% UI 3·39–4·04), over half of the likely global adult population at that time. While China, India, and the USA will continue to constitute a large proportion of the global population with overweight and obesity, the number in the sub-Saharan Africa super-region is forecasted to increase by 254·8% (234·4–269·5). In Nigeria specifically, the number of adults with overweight and obesity is forecasted to rise to 141 million (121–162) by 2050, making it the country with the fourth-largest population with overweight and obesity. Interpretation: No country to date has successfully curbed the rising rates of adult overweight and obesity. Without immediate and effective intervention, overweight and obesity will continue to increase globally. Particularly in Asia and Africa, driven by growing populations, the number of individuals with overweight and obesity is forecast to rise substantially. These regions will face a considerable increase in obesity-related disease burden. Merely acknowledging obesity as a global health issue would be negligent on the part of global health and public health practitioners; more aggressive and targeted measures are required to address this crisis, as obesity is one of the foremost avertible risks to health now and in the future and poses an unparalleled threat of premature disease and death at local, national, and global levels. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.Full Tex

A calibrated EMG-informed neuromusculoskeletal model can estimate hip and knee joint contact forces in cycling better than static optimisation

Cycling is a popular competitive and recreational exercise and is recommended as safe to perform following hip or knee surgery. During cycling, joint contact forces (JCF) have been recorded in-vivo and estimated via neuromusculoskeletal models, but model estimates are yet to be validated. In this study, motion data, crank force, and electromyograms for a range of cadences (40 and 60 revolutions per minute (rpm)) and power outputs (25, 35, 50, 60, 79, 75, 85, 95, 120 W) were collected from 7 healthy people cycling on a powered stationary ergometer. A (1) calibrated electromyogram-informed neuromusculoskeletal model and an (2) uncalibrated model that utilised static optimisation were used to estimate hip and knee JCF. Hip and knee JCF estimates were compared against in-vivo measurements of hip and knee JCF from literature. Peak hip and knee JCF were overestimated by both electromyogram-informed and static optimisation solutions, however, the magnitude and gradients of JCF as a function of cadence and power estimated by the electromyogram-informed solution more closely matched in-vivo measurement than those computed by static optimisation. Similarly, the profile of knee JCF as a function of crank angle estimated by the electromyogram-informed solution more closely matched in-vivo knee JCF than the static optimisation solution. Results indicate electromyogram-informed modelling is a valid computational approach to estimate knee and hip biomechanics during standard seated ergometer cycling.Full Tex

Impact of mild hypercapnia in critically ill patients with metabolic acidosis

Purpose Clinical trials focusing on critically ill patients with metabolic acidosis, a common exclusion criterion is the presence of a PaCO2 > 45 mmHg. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of mild hypercapnia on patient characteristics, severity, and clinical outcomes in critically ill patients with metabolic acidosis. Material and methods Multicentre, retrospective, observational study conducted in 12 intensive care units (ICUs) in Queensland, Australia. Patients with metabolic acidosis and concurrent vasopressor requirement were included and the exposure of interest was the PaCO2 level at the time of meeting the eligibility criteria divided in two groups: PaCO2 ≤ 45 mmHg and PaCO2 46–50 mmHg. Primary clinical outcome was major adverse kidney events within 30 days (MAKE30). Results We studied 5601 patients, with 3605 (64.4 %) in the PaCO2 ≤ 45 mmHg group and 1996 (35.6 %) in the PaCO2 46–50 mmHg group. The incidence of MAKE30 was lower in the PaCO2 46–50 mmHg group (29 % vs. 34 %; OR, 0.79 [95 %CI, 0.69 to 0.90]; p < 0.001) as was the use of renal replacement therapy, and the incidence of acute kidney injury. After adjustment for confounders, no outcome was different between the groups. The maximum fall of pH associated with an increase of 1 mmHg of PaCO2 in the PaCO2 46–50 mmHg group was 0.006. Conclusion In patients with metabolic acidosis, after adjustment for potential confounders, mild hypercapnia does not increase the MAKE-30 rate and does not have a major impact on pH.Full Tex

Assessing the Rise in Papillary Thyroid Cancer Incidence: A 38-Year Australian Study Investigating WHO Classification Influence

The incidence of thyroid cancer has shown marked increases globally over recent decades. This study investigated how the incidence of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) subtypes and World Health Organisation (WHO) endocrine tumour classification changes have affected overall thyroid cancer incidence recorded in Australia. Using incidence data from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare cancer registry (spanning 1982 to 2019), this descriptive epidemiological study employed joinpoint regression analysis to assess temporal trends in thyroid carcinoma incidence, focusing on PTC. Results were then compared with WHO endocrine tumour classification changes over the same period. The results showed increasing trends for the classic PTC subtype over the entire 38-year period and for thyroid microcarcinomas post-2003, while a declining trend for the follicular variant of PTC was observed commencing in 2015. Examination of PTC incidence also revealed distinct changes in trends that align with the WHO classification of papillary microcarcinoma as a subtype in 2004 and the reclassification of some encapsulated follicular variant of PTCs to non-invasive follicular thyroid neoplasms with papillary-like nuclear features (NIFTP) in 2016/17. Even when taking these WHO classification changes into account, significant increases in PTC over the last three decades are observed. These findings underscore the shifts in classification driven by improving diagnostic clarity influencing thyroid carcinoma incidence patterns. However, thyroid carcinoma cases in Australia have dramatically increased over the last three decades independent of WHO classification changes, suggesting a genuine increase rather than simply being a direct consequence of improved reporting and diagnostics.Full Tex

Social Marketing @ Griffith

No Full Tex

Tone deaf and a tin ear: political leaders and listening in disasters

Research alludes to the inability of some politicians to listen to people affected by disasters, sometimes with disastrous consequences for those caught up in disasters and for politicians. This article suggests a new approach to engagement by politicians with disaster affected communities – that of listening. It draws on interviews with senior emergency managers in Australia, the United Kingdom, North America, Iceland and Norway, to explore their views about the need for politicians to listen in disasters. Examples are provided of instances in which the perceived inability of politicians to listen disaster survivors drew significant public attention. This article suggests a variety of ways in which politicians might effectively listen to those effected by disasters. The findings of this article have ramifications for politicians, their advisors and disaster affected communities.No Full Tex

Perspectives and needs of assistive technology advisors and suppliers in Queensland, Australia

Purpose An assistive technology ecosystem requires co-ordinated collaboration between policy, products, provision processes, and personnel. A needs assessment was conducted of the assistive technology sector in Queensland to examine these components from the perspective of all key stakeholders. Materials and Methods: This paper reports the findings of the expressed needs of the assistive technology sector as experienced by the AT advisors and suppliers. A sequential mixed methods design supported completion of a quantitative online survey (n = 29) followed by qualitative exploration with assistive technology advisors (n = 9) and suppliers (n = 6). Results There was an identified need to address the processes that led to delays or unfavourable outcomes for AT. Despite reporting confidence in the quality of services delivered, the advisors were worried about reduced access to expert consultation and a need to better build capacity and capability in the sector. Access to AT for hire or trial was problematic with conflicting tensions identified by the advisors and suppliers. However, both worried about the impact on the agency of the AT recipient in the process. Conclusions There are opportunities to enhance the personnel, provision, and policy aspects of the assistive technology ecosystem in Queensland. Pressure points are: workforce capacity and capability to meet the growing need; finding ways to support the trial of assistive technology required to ensure appropriate recommendations for assistive technology that is fit for purpose; and improving information from the bodies that manage funding to reduce the waste in the provision process.Full Tex