Retail payment services 2021

The Covid-19 pandemic also affected figures in 2021, albeit to a lesser extent than in 2020. The number of card payments increased again, both in Norway and at physical points of sale (POS) abroad. The average number of card transactions per inhabitant in 2021 was 479, which is high in a global context. Most card payments, 78 percent, were made at physical payment terminals in Norway or abroad. More than four out of five of these payments were contactless. The remaining card payments were primarily related to online shopping. Online payments account for an ever larger share of card payments. The increase in online payments between 2020 and 2021 was 19 percent. On average, the annual increase for the past five years was 25 percent. Surveys show that almost half of online purchases were made using traditional card payments. The use of mobile payments is increasing rapidly and now account for one out of four online payments. Most online purchases are ultimately settled with a payment card, including when the primary method of payment is mobile payment, invoicing, or some other manner. Giro payments are used, among other things, to pay bills and transfer money between private individuals. For households, regular online banking payments are the most common giro payment. The number of instant payments has grown quickly in recent years and instant payments are now the most used giro payment. These are primarily person-to-person (P2P) payments on mobile payment platforms. The Bank’s surveys show that 4 percent of survey participants used cash in their most recent payment at a physical point of sale. This figure has remained stable since the outbreak of the pandemic in spring 2020. The numaber of ATM and POS cash withdrawals has continued to decline, albeit somewhat less in 2021 than in 2020. The value of withdrawals from ATMs has also continued to fall but the value of POS withdrawals has increased somewhat.publishedVersio

The Government Petroleum Fund : Annual Report 2001

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Human vs. Machine: Disposition Effect among Algorithmic and Human Day Traders

This paper studies whether and why algorithmic traders exhibit one of the most broadlydocumented behavioral puzzles – the disposition effect. We use trade data from the NASDAQ Copenhagen Stock Exchange merged with the weather data. We find that on average, the disposition effect for human traders is substantial and increases significantly on colder days, while for similarly-trading algorithms, it is insignificant and insensitive to the weather. This provides causal evidence of the link between human psychology and the disposition effect and suggests that algorithms can reduce psychology-related human errors. Considering the ongoing AI adoption, this may have broad implications.publishedVersio

Norges Bank Investment Management : Annual Report 2006

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Government Pension Fund Global : Annual Report 2010

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The Norwegian Government Petroleum Fund : Annual Report 1998

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Monetary policy and inflation

Speech by Governor Ida Wolden Bache at the Centre for Monetary Economics (CME) / BI Norwegian Business School on 20 October 2022.publishedVersio

The Price Responsiveness of Shale Producers: Evidence from Micro Data

We show that shale oil producers respond positively to favourable oil price signals, and that this response is mainly associated with the timing of production decisions through well completion and refracturing, consistent with the Hotelling theory of optimal extraction. This finding is established using a novel proprietary data set consisting of more than 200,000 shale wells across ten U.S. states spanning almost two decades. We document large heterogeneity in the estimated responses across the various shale wells, suggesting that aggregation bias is an important issue for this kind of analysis. Our empirical results call for new models that can account for a growing share of shale oil in the U.S., the inherent flexibility of shale extraction technology in production and the role of shale oil in transmitting oil price shocks to the global economy.publishedVersio

The impact of financial shocks on the forecast distribution of output and inflation

Financial shocks represent a major driver of fluctuations in tail risk, defined as the 5th percentile of the forecast distributions of output and inflation. Since the variance and the asymmetry of the forecast distributions are largely driven by the left tail, financial shocks turn out to play a prominent role for distribution dynamics. Monetary policy shocks also play a role in shaping risk, although its effects are smaller than those of financial shocks. These findings are obtained using a novel econometric approach which combines quantile regressions and Structural VARs.publishedVersio

Government Pension Fund Global : Annual report 2018

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