Modeling the Volatility of Real GDP Growth: The Case of Japan Revisited

Previous studies (e.g., Hamori, 2000; Ho and Tsui, 2003; Fountas et al., 2004) find high volatility persistence of economic growth rates using generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) specifications. This paper reexamines the Japanese case, using the same approach and showing that this finding of high volatility persistence reflects the Great Moderation, which features a sharp decline in the variance as well as two falls in the mean of the growth rates identified by Bai and Perronâs (1998, 2003) multiple structural change test. Our empirical results provide new evidence. First, excess kurtosis drops substantially or disappears in the GARCH or exponential GARCH model that corrects for an additive outlier. Second, using the outlier-corrected data, the integrated GARCH effect or high volatility persistence remains in the specification once we introduce intercept-shift dummies into the mean equation. Third, the time-varying variance falls sharply, only when we incorporate the break in the variance equation. Fourth, the ARCH in mean model finds no effects of our more correct measure of output volatility on output growth or of output growth on its volatility

Comparing Input- and Output-Oriented Measures of Technical Efficiency to Determine Local Returns to Scale in DEA Models

This paper shows how one can infer the nature of local returns to scale at the input- or output-oriented efficient projection of a technically inefficient input-output bundle, when the input- and output-oriented measures of efficiency differ

Head and Neck Embryology: An Overview of Development, Growth and Defect in the Human Fetus

The purpose of this research is to explore the growth and formation of the head and neck from embryological development through puberty in order to understand how this knowledge is necessary for the development of dental and medical treatments and procedures. This is a necessary aspect of the medical and dental school curriculum at the University of Connecticut Health Center Schools of Medicine and Dental Medicine that needs to be incorporated into the current study of embryology for first-year students. Working with Dr. Christine Niekrash, D.M.D, this paper will cover the embryology and growth of the head, face and oral cavity. The goal of this project will be to organize the information and recognize the resources needed to successfully introduce this part of human physiology to the UConn dental and medical students. One area in which this information is particularly relevant is the facial and oral deformities that can occur throughout fetal development